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Relative scarcity and convenience yield: evidence from non-ferrous metals

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  • Akihiro Omura
  • Richard Chung
  • Neda Todorova
  • Bin Li

Abstract

We study the relationship between convenience yield and relative scarcity in the non-ferrous metal market for the period January 2000–March 2015. We identify various sets of economic relationships for six major base metals, namely, aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Our bivariate and multivariate VARs and associated Granger-causality test results generally support the existence of a positive relationship between convenience yields of base metals and our relative scarcity measure. Furthermore, the time-varying characteristics observed in the results, especially during contango and backwardation periods, provide useful information to market players in developing inventory strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Akihiro Omura & Richard Chung & Neda Todorova & Bin Li, 2016. "Relative scarcity and convenience yield: evidence from non-ferrous metals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(57), pages 5605-5624, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:57:p:5605-5624
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1181832
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    Cited by:

    1. Akihiro Omura & Neda Todorova, 2019. "The quantile dependence of commodity futures markets on news sentiment," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 818-837, July.
    2. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Todorova, Neda, 2017. "Volatility forecasting of non-ferrous metal futures: Covariances, covariates or combinations?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 228-247.
    3. Omura, Akihiro & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard & Todorova, Neda, 2018. "Convenience yield, realised volatility and jumps: Evidence from non-ferrous metals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 496-510.
    4. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2022. "Spillovers and interdependency across base metals: Evidence from China's futures and spot markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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