IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v40y2013icp989-1000.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Chiarella, Carl
  • Kang, Boda
  • Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios
  • Tô, Thuy-Duong

Abstract

This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiarella, Carl & Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2013. "Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 989-1000.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:989-1000
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.05.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313001072
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.05.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. R. Miltersen, 2003. "Commodity price modelling that matches current observables: a new approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 51-58.
    2. Rong Fan & Anurag Gupta & Peter Ritchken, 2003. "Hedging in the Possible Presence of Unspanned Stochastic Volatility: Evidence from Swaption Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 2219-2248, October.
    3. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
    4. Leif Andersen, 2010. "Markov models for commodity futures: theory and practice," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 831-854.
    5. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2009. "Understanding Index Option Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4493-4529, November.
    6. Carl Chiarella & Oh Kang Kwon, 2001. "Forward rate dependent Markovian transformations of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton term structure model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 237-257.
    7. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
    8. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    9. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    10. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2002. "Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1685-1730, August.
    11. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
    12. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "A General Stochastic Volatility Model for the Pricing of Interest Rate Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 2007-2057, May.
    14. Agnolucci, Paolo, 2009. "Volatility in crude oil futures: A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 316-321, March.
    15. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    16. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October.
    17. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    18. Fusai, Gianluca & Marena, Marina & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2008. "Analytical pricing of discretely monitored Asian-style options: Theory and application to commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2033-2045, October.
    19. Doran, James S. & Ronn, Ehud I., 2008. "Computing the market price of volatility risk in the energy commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2541-2552, December.
    20. Miltersen, Kristian R. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1998. "Pricing of Options on Commodity Futures with Stochastic Term Structures of Convenience Yields and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 33-59, March.
    21. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. "Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-1545, December.
    22. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    23. Peter Ritchken & L. Sankarasubramanian, 1995. "Volatility Structures Of Forward Rates And The Dynamics Of The Term Structure1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 55-72, January.
    24. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. "Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-320, June.
    25. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
    26. Tomas Björk & Magnus Blix & Camilla Landén, 2006. "On Finite Dimensional Realizations For The Term Structure Of Futures Prices," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 281-314.
    27. Les Clewlow & Chris Strickland, 1999. "A Multi-Factor Model for Energy Derivatives," Research Paper Series 28, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    28. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    29. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    30. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Reis, Jorge, 1998. "Valuation of Commodity Futures and Options under Stochastic Convenience Yields, Interest Rates, and Jump Diffusions in the Spot," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 61-86, March.
    31. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald. A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "Global commodity prices and global stock volatility shocks: effects across countries," Working Papers 2017-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    2. Yuyang Cheng & Marcos Escobar-Anel & Zhenxian Gong, 2019. "Generalized Mean-Reverting 4/2 Factor Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Erik Schlögl, 2019. "Interest rate risk in long‐dated commodity options positions: To hedge or not to hedge?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 109-127, January.
    4. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Hilliard, Jitka, 2019. "A jump-diffusion model for pricing and hedging with margined options: An application to Brent crude oil contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 137-155.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Thuy‐Duong Tô, 2016. "The Return–Volatility Relation in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 127-152, February.
    6. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Empirical Hedging Performance on Long-Dated Crude Oil Derivatives," Research Paper Series 376, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2019. "Revising the Impact of Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks: Effects across Countries," MPRA Paper 103035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Empirical Pricing Performance in Long-Dated Crude Oil Derivatives: Do Models with Stochastic Interest Rates Matter?," Research Paper Series 367, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020. "Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Lorenz Schneider & Bertrand Tavin, 2018. "Seasonal Stochastic Volatility and the Samuelson Effect in Agricultural Futures Markets," Papers 1802.01393, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    11. Bertrand Tavin & Lorenz Schneider, 2018. "From the Samuelson volatility effect to a Samuelson correlation effect : An analysis of crude oil calendar spread options," Post-Print hal-02311970, HAL.
    12. Schneider, Lorenz & Tavin, Bertrand, 2018. "From the Samuelson volatility effect to a Samuelson correlation effect: An analysis of crude oil calendar spread options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 185-202.
    13. Benjamin Tin Chun Cheng, 2017. "Pricing and Hedging of Long-Dated Commodity Derivatives," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2017, January-A.
    14. repec:uts:finphd:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marc Bohmann & Vinay Patel, 2020. "Information Leakage in Energy Derivatives around News Announcements," Published Paper Series 2020-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Vespignani, Joaquin & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald, 2018. "Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Volatility Shocks," MPRA Paper 84250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2020. "Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Cheng, Benjamin & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Schlögl, Erik, 2018. "Pricing of long-dated commodity derivatives: Do stochastic interest rates matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 148-166.
    19. Zhuoqi Teng & Renhong Wu & Yugang He & Anibal Coronel, 2023. "Swings in Crude Oil Valuations: Analyzing Their Bearing on China’s Stock Market Returns amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Upheaval," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2023, pages 1-10, June.
    20. He, Huizi & Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & Li, Xiuming, 2021. "Detecting lag linkage effect between economic policy uncertainty and crude oil price: A multi-scale perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    21. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Hedging Futures Options with Stochastic Interest Rates," Research Paper Series 375, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    22. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2015. "Pricing of Long-dated Commodity Derivatives with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates," Research Paper Series 366, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Max F. Schöne & Stefan Spinler, 2017. "A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 135-165, July.
    2. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2006. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 12744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
    4. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Lopez, Matias & Naranjo, Lorenzo, 2017. "A multifactor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 182-201.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Thuy‐Duong Tô, 2016. "The Return–Volatility Relation in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 127-152, February.
    6. Crosby, John & Frau, Carme, 2022. "Jumps in commodity prices: New approaches for pricing plain vanilla options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Cheng, Benjamin & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Schlögl, Erik, 2018. "Pricing of long-dated commodity derivatives: Do stochastic interest rates matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 148-166.
    8. Gonzalo Cortazar & Simon Gutierrez & Hector Ortega, 2016. "Empirical Performance of Commodity Pricing Models: When is it Worthwhile to Use a Stochastic Volatility Specification?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 457-487, May.
    9. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013, January-A.
    10. Leif Andersen, 2010. "Markov models for commodity futures: theory and practice," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 831-854.
    11. Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020. "Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Pricing Option on Commodity Futures under String Shock," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    13. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.
    14. John Crosby, 2008. "A multi-factor jump-diffusion model for commodities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200.
    15. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    16. Benjamin Tin Chun Cheng, 2017. "Pricing and Hedging of Long-Dated Commodity Derivatives," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2017, January-A.
    17. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    18. Arismendi, Juan C. & Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Paschke, Raphael & Rudolf, Markus, 2016. "Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the pricing of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-65.
    19. Feng, Ling & Wang, Jieyu, 2023. "Random sources correlations and carbon futures pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    20. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Empirical Pricing Performance in Long-Dated Crude Oil Derivatives: Do Models with Stochastic Interest Rates Matter?," Research Paper Series 367, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity derivatives; Crude oil derivatives; Unspanned stochastic volatility; Hump-shaped volatility; Pricing; Hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:989-1000. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.