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Seasonality and the Valuation of Commodity Options

Author

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  • Janis Back

    (WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management)

  • Marcel Prokopczuk

    (ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

  • Markus Rudolf

    (WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management)

Abstract

Price movements in many commodity markets exhibit significant seasonal patterns. In this paper, we study the effects of seasonal volatility on models' option pricing performance. In terms of options pricing, a deterministic seasonal component at the price level can be neglected. In contrast, this is not true for the seasonal pattern observed in the volatility of the commodity price. Analyzing an extensive sample of soybean and heating oil options, we find that seasonality in volatility is an important aspect to consider when valuing these contracts. The inclusion of an appropriate seasonality adjustment significantly reduces pricing errors and yields more improvement in valuation accuracy than increasing the number of stochastic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Janis Back & Marcel Prokopczuk & Markus Rudolf, 2010. "Seasonality and the Valuation of Commodity Options," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2010-08, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2010-08
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    File URL: http://www.icmacentre.ac.uk/files/discussion-papers/dp201008.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
    2. Diewald, Laszlo & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2015. "Time-variations in commodity price jumps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 72-84.
    3. Arismendi, Juan C. & Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Paschke, Raphael & Rudolf, Markus, 2016. "Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the pricing of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-65.
    4. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0638-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Farkas, Walter & Gourier, Elise & Huitema, Robert & Necula, Ciprian, 2017. "A two-factor cointegrated commodity price model with an application to spread option pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 249-268.
    6. Zakić, Vladimir & Kovačević, Vlado & Ivkov, Ivana & Mirović, Vera, 2014. "Importance Of Public Warehouse System For Financing Agribusiness Sector," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Mat Rahim, Siti Rohaya, 2014. "Asymmetric Cointegration: Barley and Crude Oil Price in United States," MPRA Paper 58447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.
    9. Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Tenyakov, Anton, 2013. "Filtering and forecasting commodity futures prices under an HMM framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1001-1013.
    10. repec:eee:jocoma:v:13:y:2019:i:c:p:16-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:48:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-016-0569-x is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Spodniak, Petr & Bertsch, Valentin, 2017. "Determinants of power spreads in electricity futures markets: A multinational analysis," Papers WP580, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities; Seasonality; Options Pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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