Seasonality and the Valuation of Commodity Options
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.
References listed on IDEAS
- Gareth W. Peters & Mark Briers & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Arnaud Doucet, 2011. "Calibration and filtering for multi factor commodity models with seasonality: incorporating panel data from futures contracts," Papers 1105.5850, arXiv.org.
- Paul Berhanu Girma & Albert S. Paulson, 1998. "Seasonality in petroleum futures spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 581-598, August.
- Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995.
"Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & Wang, Jiang, 1959-, 1993. "Implementing option pricing models when asset returns are predictable," Working papers 3593-93., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Andrew W. Lo & Jiang Wang, 1994. "Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," NBER Working Papers 4720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karali, Berna & Thurman, Walter N., 2010. "Components of Grain Futures Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-16, August.
- de Munnik, Jeroen F. J. & Schotman, Peter C., 1994. "Cross-sectional versus time series estimation of term structure models: empirical results for the Dutch bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 997-1025, October.
- Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
- Geman, Hélyette & Ohana, Steve, 2009. "Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 576-585, July.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. "Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-320, June.
- Nikolaos T. Milonas, 1991. "Measuring seasonalities in commodity markets and the half‐month effect," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 331-345, June.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997.
"Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
- Charles Quanwei Cao & Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm54, Yale School of Management.
- Charles Quanwei Cao & Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm65, Yale School of Management.
- Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
- Bierbrauer, Michael & Menn, Christian & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Truck, Stefan, 2007. "Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3462-3485, November.
- Svetlana Borovkova & Helyette Geman, 2006. "Seasonal and stochastic effects in commodity forward curves," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 167-186, September.
- Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
- Darren L. Frechette, 1997. "The Dynamics of Convenience and the Brazilian Soybean Boom," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1108-1118.
- Steen Koekebakker & Gudbrand Lien, 2004. "Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Futures Prices—Evidence from Wheat Options," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1018-1031.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2007. "Integrating Multiple Commodities in a Model of Stochastic Price Dynamics," MPRA Paper 5412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/1937 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dempster, M.A.H. & Medova, Elena & Tang, Ke, 2008. "Long term spread option valuation and hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2530-2540, December.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, August.
- Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
- Mihaela Manoliu & Stathis Tompaidis, 2002. "Energy futures prices: term structure models with Kalman filter estimation," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 21-43.
- Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2004.
"The importance of the loss function in option valuation,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 291-318, May.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs, 2003. "The Importance of the Loss Function in Option Valuation," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-52, CIRANO.
- Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233-233.
- Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2010. "Commodity derivatives valuation with autoregressive and moving average components in the price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2742-2752, November.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
- Xuemin Yan, 2002. "Valuation of commodity derivatives in a new multi-factor model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 251-271, October.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
- Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Reis, Jorge, 1998. "Valuation of Commodity Futures and Options under Stochastic Convenience Yields, Interest Rates, and Jump Diffusions in the Spot," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 61-86, March.
- Doran, James S. & Ronn, Ehud I., 2008. "Computing the market price of volatility risk in the energy commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2541-2552, December.
- Hylleberg, S. (ed.), 1992. "Modelling Seasonality," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773184.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Tenyakov, Anton, 2013. "Filtering and forecasting commodity futures prices under an HMM framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1001-1013.
- Piccirilli, Marco & Schmeck, Maren Diane & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2021.
"Capturing the power options smile by an additive two-factor model for overlapping futures prices,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
- Marco Piccirilli & Maren Diane Schmeck & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2019. "Capturing the power options smile by an additive two-factor model for overlapping futures prices," Papers 1910.01044, arXiv.org.
- Piccirilli, Marco & Schmeck, Maren Diane & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2019. "Capturing the power options smile by an additive two-factor model for overlapping futures prices," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 625, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
- Marc Bohmann & Vinay Patel, 2020. "Information Leakage in Energy Derivatives around News Announcements," Published Paper Series 2020-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Belleh Fontem & Megan Price, 2021. "Joint client selection and contract design for a risk-averse commodity broker in a two-echelon supply chain," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 307(1), pages 111-138, December.
- Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015.
"Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
- Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Derivatives Pricing with Forward-Looking Information," Working Papers on Finance 1317, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
- Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2019. "Market specific seasonal trading behavior in NASDAQ OMX electricity options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 16-29.
- Proelss, Juliane & Schweizer, Denis & Seiler, Volker, 2020.
"The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
- Juliane Proelss & Denis Schweizer & Volker Seiler, 2019. "The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts," Post-Print hal-02983233, HAL.
- Diewald, Laszlo & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2015. "Time-variations in commodity price jumps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 72-84.
- Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2019.
"Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 1011-1023.
- Manuel Moreno & Alfonso Novales & Federico Platania, 2019. "Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-29, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Curve momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
- Arismendi, Juan C. & Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Paschke, Raphael & Rudolf, Markus, 2016.
"Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the pricing of commodity options,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-65.
- Janis Back & Marcel Prokopczuk & Markus Rudolf, 2011. "Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the Pricing of Commodity Options," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-16, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Chih-Chen Hsu & An-Sing Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin & Ting-Fu Chen, 2017. "The affine styled-facts price dynamics for the natural gas: evidence from daily returns and option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 819-848, April.
- Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Christoph Würsig, 2020. "Volatility term structures in commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 527-555, April.
- Spodniak, Petr & Bertsch, Valentin, 2017. "Determinants of power spreads in electricity futures markets: A multinational analysis," Papers WP580, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020.
"Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
- Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2019. "Economic Determinants of Oil Futures Volatility: A Term Structure Perspective," Research Paper Series 401, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Fathi Abid & Bilel Kaffel, 2018. "The extent of virgin olive-oil prices’ distribution revealing the behavior of market speculators," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 561-590, February.
- Ma, Zonggang & Ma, Chaoqun & Wu, Zhijian, 2020. "Closed-form analytical solutions for options on agricultural futures with seasonality and stochastic convenience yield," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
- Farkas, Walter & Gourier, Elise & Huitema, Robert & Necula, Ciprian, 2017.
"A two-factor cointegrated commodity price model with an application to spread option pricing,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 249-268.
- Ciprian Necula & Elise Gourier & Robert Huitema & Walter Farkas, 2015. "A Two-Factor Cointegrated Commodity Price Model with an Application to Spread Option Pricing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-54, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jun 2016.
- Zakić, Vladimir & Kovačević, Vlado & Ivkov, Ivana & Mirović, Vera, 2014. "Importance Of Public Warehouse System For Financing Agribusiness Sector," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1-15, December.
- Mat Rahim, Siti Rohaya, 2014. "Asymmetric Cointegration: Barley and Crude Oil Price in United States," MPRA Paper 58447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Max F. Schöne & Stefan Spinler, 2017. "A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 135-165, July.
- Arismendi, Juan C. & Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Paschke, Raphael & Rudolf, Markus, 2016.
"Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the pricing of commodity options,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-65.
- Janis Back & Marcel Prokopczuk & Markus Rudolf, 2011. "Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the Pricing of Commodity Options," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-16, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Cheng, Benjamin & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Schlögl, Erik, 2018. "Pricing of long-dated commodity derivatives: Do stochastic interest rates matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 148-166.
- Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.
- Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, March.
- Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013.
- Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.
- Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
- Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Hilliard, Jitka, 2019. "A jump-diffusion model for pricing and hedging with margined options: An application to Brent crude oil contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 137-155.
- Cortazar, Gonzalo & Lopez, Matias & Naranjo, Lorenzo, 2017. "A multifactor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 182-201.
- Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
- Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013.
"The dynamics of commodity prices,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
- Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2011. "The Dynamics of Commodity Prices," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Farkas, Walter & Gourier, Elise & Huitema, Robert & Necula, Ciprian, 2017.
"A two-factor cointegrated commodity price model with an application to spread option pricing,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 249-268.
- Ciprian Necula & Elise Gourier & Robert Huitema & Walter Farkas, 2015. "A Two-Factor Cointegrated Commodity Price Model with an Application to Spread Option Pricing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-54, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jun 2016.
- Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Pricing Option on Commodity Futures under String Shock," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
- Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020.
"Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
- Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2019. "Economic Determinants of Oil Futures Volatility: A Term Structure Perspective," Research Paper Series 401, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2010. "Commodity derivatives valuation with autoregressive and moving average components in the price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2742-2752, November.
- Chiarella, Carl & Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2013.
"Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 989-1000.
- Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Thuy-Duong To, 2012. "Humps in the Volatility Structure of the Crude Oil Futures Market," Research Paper Series 308, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Mirantes, Andrés García & Población, Javier & Serna, Gregorio, 2013. "The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 155-166.
- Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
- Chad E. Hart & Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Na Jin, 2016.
"Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 707-725.
- Hart, Chad & Lence, Sergio H & Hayes, Dermot J. & Jin, Na, 2015. "Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets," ISU General Staff Papers 201508170700001577, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Hart, Chad & Lence, Sergio H & Hayes, Dermot J. & Jin, Na, 2015. "Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800001065, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
More about this item
Keywords
Commodities; Seasonality; Options Pricing;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2010-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bsrdguk.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marie Pearson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bsrdguk.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.