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Theory of Storage and the Pricing of Commodity Claims

Author

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  • Martin J. Nielsen
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz

Abstract

We extend the literature on commodity pricing by incorporating a link between the spread of forward prices and spot price volatility suggested by the theory of storage. Our model has closed form solutions that are generalizations of the two-factor model of Gibson--Schwartz (1990). We estimate the model on daily copper spot and forward prices using the Kalman filter methodology. Our findings confirm the link between the forward spread and volatility, but also show that the Gibson--Schwartz (1990) model prices forward contracts almost as well. In the pricing of option contracts, however, there are significant differences between the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin J. Nielsen & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2004. "Theory of Storage and the Pricing of Commodity Claims," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:5-24
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ochieng', Otieno Geoffrey, 2010. "Effect of Value Addition on Price: A Hedonic Analysis of Peanut in Retail Supermarkets in Nairobi, Kenya," Research Theses 134495, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Almansour, Abdullah, 2016. "Convenience yield in commodity price modeling: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 238-247.
    3. Guiotto, Paolo, 2022. "A note on the spot-forward parity under stochastic cost of carry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Suenaga, Hiroaki, 2013. "Measuring bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices through the comparison of simultaneous and sequential estimation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 53-66.
    5. Liu, Peng & Tang, Ke, 2011. "The stochastic behavior of commodity prices with heteroskedasticity in the convenience yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 211-224, March.
    6. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Lopez, Matias & Naranjo, Lorenzo, 2017. "A multifactor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 182-201.
    7. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
    8. Razvan Tudor, 2009. "Evidence of unspanned stochastic volatility in crude-oil market," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 33, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    9. Pieroni, Luca & Ricciarelli, Matteo, 2008. "Modelling dynamic storage function in commodity markets: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1080-1092, September.
    10. Gonzalo Cortazar & Simon Gutierrez & Hector Ortega, 2016. "Empirical Performance of Commodity Pricing Models: When is it Worthwhile to Use a Stochastic Volatility Specification?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 457-487, May.
    11. Max F. Schöne & Stefan Spinler, 2017. "A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 135-165, July.
    12. George M. Korniotis, 2009. "Does speculation affect spot price levels? the case of metals with and without futures markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    14. Fouquau, Julien & Six, Pierre, 2015. "A comparison of the convenience yield and interest-adjusted basis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 142-149.
    15. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013.
    16. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2006. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 12744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Daniel Leonhardt & Antony Ware & Rudi Zagst, 2017. "A Cointegrated Regime-Switching Model Approach with Jumps Applied to Natural Gas Futures Prices," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-19, September.
    18. Lin, Chuanyi & Roberts, Matthew C., 2006. "Storability on Modeling Commodity Futures Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21484, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. W. Keener Hughen, 2010. "A maximal affine stochastic volatility model of oil prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 101-133, February.
    20. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2015. "Valuing commodity options and futures options with changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 524-533.
    21. Crosby, John & Frau, Carme, 2022. "Jumps in commodity prices: New approaches for pricing plain vanilla options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    22. Gao, Xin & Li, Bingxin & Liu, Rui, 2023. "The relative pricing of WTI and Brent crude oil futures: Expectations or risk premia?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    23. Stanislav Anatolyev & Sergei Seleznev & Veronika Selezneva, 2021. "How does the financial market update beliefs about the real economy? Evidence from the oil market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 938-961, November.
    24. Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.
    25. Finbarr Murphy & Ehud Ronn, 2015. "The valuation and information content of options on crude-oil futures contracts," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 95-106, July.

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