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The Accuracy of Consensus Real Estate Forecasts Revisited

Author

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  • Patrick McAllister
  • Ilir Nase

Abstract

Building on previous research evaluating the IPF Consensus Forecasts, this study updates and expands upon the existing body of work. The paper evaluates forecasting accuracy at the sector level and assesses the extent to which the consensus forecasts were able to predict the relative performance of each sector. It also evaluates the performance of the implied yield forecasts and concludes that it is failure in yield forecasting that is the main source of failure in forecasts of capital growth and total returns. The ability of the consensus forecasts to identify the best and worst performing sectors was relatively good with a high level of agreement between the actual and forecasted sector rankings.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick McAllister & Ilir Nase, 2019. "The Accuracy of Consensus Real Estate Forecasts Revisited," ERES eres2019_374, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_374
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    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2019-374
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    Keywords

    Forecasting performance accuracy. Consensus. Commercial real estate.;

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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