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On the Robustness of the Balance Statistics with respect to Nonresponse

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  • Christian Seiler

Abstract

Business cycle indicators based on the balance statistics are a widely used method to monitor the actual economic situation. In contrast to official data, indicators from business surveys are early available and typically not revised after their first publication. But as surveys can be in general affected by distortions through the response behaviour, these indicators can also be biased. In addition, time-dependent nonresponse patterns can produce even more complex forms of biased results. This paper examines a framework which kind of nonresponse patterns lead to biases and decreases in performance. We perform an extensive Monte Carlo study to analyse their effects on the indicators. Our analyses show that these indicators are extremely stable towards selection biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Seiler, 2012. "On the Robustness of the Balance Statistics with respect to Nonresponse," ifo Working Paper Series 126, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_126
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, September.
    3. Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Forecasting exports across Europe: What are the superior survey indicators?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2429-2453, May.
    4. Seiler, Christian & Heumann, Christian, 2013. "Microdata imputations and macrodata implications: Evidence from the Ifo Business Survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 722-733.
    5. Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52, September.
    6. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. David Leuwer & Bernd Süssmuth, 2013. "The Exchange Rate Susceptibility of Some European Core Industries and the Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 4253, CESifo.
    8. Christian Seiler, 2012. "Zur Robustheit des ifo Geschäftsklimaindikators in Bezug auf fehlende Werte," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(17), pages 19-22, September.
    9. Leuwer, David & Süßmuth, Bernd, 2017. "The exchange rate susceptibility of European core industries, 1995-2010," Working Papers 147, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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