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Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence

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  • Christian Seiler

Abstract

Zur Beantwortung sozioökonomischer Fragestellungen nehmen Umfragen als Methode für den empirischen Erkenntnisgewinn eine zentrale Rolle ein. Ein weitverbreitetes Problem auf der Erhebungsseite ist jedoch das Auftreten fehlender Werte, welche zu verzerrten Ergebnissen führen können. Während es für Bevölkerungs- und Haushaltsbefragungen eine umfassende Literatur zu diesem Thema existiert, ist dieses Thema im Bereich von Unternehmensbefragungen in weit geringerem Maße erforscht worden. Diese Arbeit widmet sich den fehlenden Werten im ifo Konjunkturtest, welcher in ähnlicher Form in fast allen OECD-Ländern durchgeführt wird. Das prominenteste Ergebnis dieser monatlich durchgeführten Umfrage ist der ifo Geschäftsklimaindikator, ein Konjunkturindikator für die deutsche Wirtschaft, welcher große Beachtung bei Unternehmern, Analysten, Politikern, Journalisten, Wissenschaftlern und in der breiten Öffentlichkeit findet. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass Konjunkturindikatoren basierend auf dieser Form der Befragung sehr stabil bezüglich nicht-zufälligen Ausfallprozessen sind. Dies lässt sich sowohl mit Hilfe von Simulationsstudien als auch durch die Schätzung der fehlenden Werte zeigen. Insbesondere führen die fehlenden Werte nicht zu einer Verschlechterung der Prognoseleistung des ifo Geschäftsklimaindikators.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    2. Matthias Bannert & Andreas Dibiasi, 2014. "Unveiling Participant Level Determinants of Unit Non-Response in Business Tendency Surveys," KOF Working papers 14-363, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    3. Michael Weinhardt & Alexia Meyermann & Stefan Liebig & Jürgen Schupp, 2016. "The Linked Employer-Employee Study of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP-LEE): Project Report," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 829, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Survey; Ifo Business Climate; Imputation; Missing data; Panel survey; Unit nonresponse;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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