IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oec/stdkaa/5l9vc43c09ms.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecast Evaluation of European Commission Survey Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Gayer

    ()

Abstract

This study examines the contribution of several survey indicators published by the European Commission to forecasting overall economic activity in the euro area. It entails a quantitative evaluation of the information content of seven composite indicators with regard to GDP growth. A preliminary analysis looks at the stationarity and correlation properties of the variables. Based on bivariate VAR-models and the notion of forecast improvement, the methodological approach is two-fold: In a first step, the focussed relations are studied from an ex post perspective. Employing standard and individual Granger-causality tests, an initial assessment of the mean predictive content of the indicators is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gayer, 2006. "Forecast Evaluation of European Commission Survey Indicators," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(2), pages 157-183.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5l9vc43c09ms
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art2-en
    Download Restriction: Full text available to READ online. PDF download available to OECD iLibrary subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:12:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-016-0002-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2015. "Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?," ifo Working Paper Series 196, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0020-y is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Mirjana Čižmešija, 2016. "European economic sentiment indicator: an empirical reappraisal," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(5), pages 2025-2054, September.
    5. Christian Seiler, 2012. "On the Robustness of the Balance Statistics with respect to Nonresponse," ifo Working Paper Series 126, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2017. "Evaluating Medium Term Forecasting Methods and their Implications for EU Output Gap Calculations," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 070, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52, June.
    8. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    9. Luc Dresse & Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Do survey indicators let us see the business cycle ? A frequency decomposition," Working Paper Research 131, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Christian Seiler, 2015. "On the robustness of balance statistics with respect to nonresponse," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(2), pages 45-62.
    11. Hyejung Moon & Jungick Lee, 2013. "Forecast evaluation of economic sentiment indicator for the Korean economy," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 180-190 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Michael Graff, 2006. "Ein multisektoraler Sammelindikator für die Schweizer Konjunktur," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(IV), pages 529-577, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5l9vc43c09ms. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/oecddfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.