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Taking the road less traveled by: Does conversation eradicate pernicious cascades?

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  • Cao, H. Henry
  • Han, Bing
  • Hirshleifer, David

Abstract

We offer a model in which sequences of individuals often converge upon poor decisions and are prone to fads, despite communication of the payoff outcomes from past choices. This reflects both direct and indirect action-based information externalities. In contrast with previous cascades literature, cascades here are spontaneously dislodged and in general have a probability less than one of lasting forever. Furthermore, the ability of individuals to communicate can reduce average decision accuracy and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, H. Henry & Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David, 2011. "Taking the road less traveled by: Does conversation eradicate pernicious cascades?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1418-1436, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:146:y:2011:i:4:p:1418-1436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1120-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. J. Daniel Aromí, 2013. "Pre-play Research in a Model of Bank Runs," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 59, pages 57-86, January-D.
    4. Tao Wang, 2011. "Dynamic Equilibrium Bunching," Working Papers 1291, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    5. Wang, Tao, 2017. "Information revelation through bunching," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 568-582.
    6. Richard Fu & Swasti Gupta-Mukherjee, 2014. "Geography, Informal Information Flows and Mutual Fund Portfolios," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 181-214, March.
    7. Wen-Lin Wu & Yin-Feng Gau, 2017. "Home bias in portfolio choices: social learning among partially informed agents," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 527-556, February.
    8. Kaustia, Markku & Knüpfer, Samuli, 2012. "Peer performance and stock market entry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 321-338.
    9. James C. D. Fisher & John Wooders, 2017. "Interacting information cascades: on the movement of conventions between groups," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(1), pages 211-231, January.

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