Professional experts offer advice with the objective of appearing well informed. Their ability is evaluated on the basis of the advice given and the realized state of the world. We model this situation as a reputational cheap-talk game with continuous signal, state, and ability type spaces. Despite allowing a message space as rich as the signal space, at best two messages are sent in the most informative equilibrium. The expert can credibly transmit only the direction but not the intensity of the information possessed. Equilibrium forecasts are then systematically less precise than under truthtelling, and learning on the expert's ability is slow.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Prat, Andrea, 2003.
"The Wrong Kind of Transparency,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Prat, 2002. "The Wrong Kind of Transparency," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 439, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Andrea Prat, 2002. "The wrong kind of transparency," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3679, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Andrea Prat, 2004. "The wrong kind of transparency," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24712, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Smith, L. & Sorensen, P., 1996.
"Pathological Outcomes of Observational Learning,"
96-19, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Jeremy C. Stein & David S. Scharfstein, 2000. "Herd Behavior and Investment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 705-706, June.
- Vijay Krishna & John Morgan, 1999.
"A Model of Expertise,"
154, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
- Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February.
- Abhijit Banerjee & Rohini Somanathan, 2001. "A Simple Model Of Voice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 189-227, February.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010.
"A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1193, David K. Levine.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
- Lohmann, Susanne, 1994. "Information Aggregation through Costly Political Action," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 518-30, June.
- Watson, Joel, 1996. "Information Transmission When the Informed Party Is Confused," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 143-161, January.
- Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988.
"Herd behavior and investment,"
WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Peter Sorensen & Marco Ottaviani, 2000. "Herd Behavior and Investment: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 695-704, June.
- Owen Lamont, 1995.
"Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters,"
NBER Working Papers
5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
- Piccione, Michele & Tan, Guofu, 1996. "A Simple Model of Expert and Non-Expert Bidding in First-Price Auctions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 501-515, August.
- Seidmann, Daniel J., 1990. "Effective cheap talk with conflicting interests," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 445-458, April.
- Anat R. Admati & Paul Pfleiderer, 2004. "Broadcasting Opinions with an Overconfident Sender," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 467-498, 05.
- Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
- Olszewski, Wojciech, 2004. "Informal communication," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 180-200, August.
- Paul R. Milgrom, 1981.
"Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications,"
Bell Journal of Economics,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn.
- Paul R. Milgrom, 1979. "Good Nevs and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Discussion Papers 407R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Bengt Holmstrom & I. Ricard & Joan Costa, 1984.
"Managerial Incentives and Capital Management,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
729, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- V. Crawford & J. Sobel, 2010.
"Strategic Information Transmission,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
544, David K. Levine.
- Sobel, Joel, 1985. "A Theory of Credibility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 557-73, October.
- Susanne Lohmann, 2010. "Information Aggregation Through Costly Political Action," Levine's Working Paper Archive 197, David K. Levine.
- Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1998.
"Career Concerns of Mutual Fund Managers,"
NBER Working Papers
6394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adam Brandenburger & Ben Polak, 1996. "When Managers Cover Their Posteriors: Making the Decisions the Market Wants to See," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(3), pages 523-541, Autumn.
- Ewerhart, Christian & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2000.
""Yes men", integrity, and the optimal design of incentive contracts,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 115-125, September.
- Ewerhart, Christian & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2000. ""Yes Men," Integrity, and the Optimal Design of Incentive Contracts," MPRA Paper 12534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zitzewitz, Eric, 2001. "Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers," Research Papers 1802, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Wei Li, 2004. "Mind Changes in the Design of Reporting Protocols," Theory workshop papers 658612000000000085, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
- John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:126:y:2006:i:1:p:120-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.