Do sell-side stock analysts exhibit escalation of commitment?
This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was close to the consensus, the out-of-consensus analyst adjusts her forecasts for the current fiscal year's earnings less in the direction of the quarterly earnings surprise. On average, this type of updating behavior reduces forecasting accuracy, so it does not seem to reflect superior private information. Further empirical results suggest that analysts do not have financial incentives to stand by extreme stock calls in the face of contradictory evidence. Managerial and financial market implications are discussed.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
- Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006.
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
- Dan Bernhardt & Murillo Campbello & Edward Kutsoati, 2002. "Who Herds?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0213, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992.
"A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
- Arkes, Hal R. & Blumer, Catherine, 1985. "The psychology of sunk cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 124-140, February.
- Gilles Hilary & Lior Menzly, 2006.
"Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 489-500, April.
- Gilles Hilary & Lior Menzly, 2006. "Does past success lead analysts to become overconfident?," Post-Print hal-00482318, HAL.
- Prendergast, Canice & Stole, Lars, 1996. "Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Old-Timers: Acquiring a Reputation for Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1105-34, December.
- Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
- John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02.
- Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010.
"The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
- Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Michael Schröder, 2010. "The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters," Post-Print hal-00849407, HAL.
- Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-83, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Michael Schröder, 2005. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-10, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, 02.
- Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2010.
"Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 901-937, February.
- Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2007. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," NBER Working Papers 12866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990.
"Herd Behavior and Investment,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
- Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
- Friesen, Geoffrey & Weller, Paul A., 2006. "Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 333-365, November.
- Qi Chen & Wei Jiang, 2006. "Analysts' Weighting of Private and Public Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 319-355.
- Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
- Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy, 2007.
"Disagreement and the Stock Market,"
2894690, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
- Werner F. M. De Bondt & William P. Forbes*, 1999. "Herding in analyst earnings forecasts: evidence from the United Kingdom," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 5(2), pages 143-163.
- Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Career Concerns of Mutual Fund Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 389-432.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:77:y:2011:i:3:p:304-317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.