Timing of predictions in dynamic cheap talk: experts vs. quacks
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Viral V. Acharya & Peter DeMarzo & Ilan Kremer, 2011.
"Endogenous Information Flows and the Clustering of Announcements,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2955-2979, December.
- Acharya, Viral V & DeMarzo, Peter & Kremer, Ilan, 2008. "Endogenous Information Flows and the Clustering of Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 6985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Acharya, Viral V & DeMarzo, Peter & Kremer, Ilan, 2011. "Endogenous Information Flows and the Clustering of Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 8680, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Viral V. Acharya & Peter M. DeMarzo & Ilan Kremer, 2010. "Endogenous Information Flows and the Clustering of Announcements," NBER Working Papers 16485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006.
"The strategy of professional forecasting,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2004. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," FRU Working Papers 2004/05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
- Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2019.
"Information Design: A Unified Perspective,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 44-95, March.
- Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2017. "Information Design: A Unified Perspective," Working Papers 089_2017, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
- Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2017. "Information Design: A Unified Perspective," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2075, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2017. "Information Design: A Unified Perspective," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2075R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2017.
- Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2017. "Information Design: A Unified Perspective," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2075R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2018.
- Bergemann, Dirk & Morris, Stephen, 2017. "Information Design: A Unified Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 11867, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2017. "Information Design: A Unified Perspective," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2075R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Nov 2017.
- Andrea Prat, 2005.
"The Wrong Kind of Transparency,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 862-877, June.
- Andrea Prat, 2002. "The Wrong Kind of Transparency," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 439, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Prat, Andrea, 2002. "The wrong kind of transparency," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3679, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Prat, Andrea, 2004. "The wrong kind of transparency," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24712, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Prat, Andrea, 2003. "The Wrong Kind of Transparency," CEPR Discussion Papers 3859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mikhail Drugov & Marta Troya‐Martinez, 2019.
"Vague lies and lax standards of proof: On the law and economics of advice,"
Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 298-315, April.
- Mikhail Drugov & Marta Troya-Martinez, 2018. "Vague lies and lax standards of proof: On the law and economics of advice," Working Papers w0246, New Economic School (NES).
- Mikhail Drugov & Marta Troya-Martinez, 2018. "Vague lies and lax standards of proof: On the law and economics of advice," Working Papers w0246, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Ginzburg, Boris, 2019.
"A Simple Model of Competitive Testing,"
MPRA Paper
94605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ginzburg, Boris, 2019. "A Simple Model of Competitive Testing," MPRA Paper 99463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stephen Morris, 2001.
"Political Correctness,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 231-265, April.
- Stephen Morris, 1999. "Political Correctness," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1242, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Roland Benabou & Guy Laroque, 1992.
"Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 921-958.
- Benabou, R. & Laroque, G., 1988. "Using Privileged Information To Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus And Credibility," Papers 19, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
- Benabou, R. & Laroque, G., 1989. "Using Privileged Information To Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, And Credibility," Working papers 513, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002.
"Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Elliot Lipnowski & Doron Ravid, 2020. "Cheap Talk With Transparent Motives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1631-1660, July.
- Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990.
"Herd Behavior and Investment,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
- Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2006. "Reputational cheap talk," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(1), pages 155-175, March.
- Ilan Guttman & Ilan Kremer & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2014.
"Not Only What but Also When: A Theory of Dynamic Voluntary Disclosure,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2400-2420, August.
- Guttman, Ilan & Kremer, Ilan & Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2012. "Not Only What but Also When: A Theory of Dynamic Voluntary Disclosure," Research Papers 2102, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Alex Smolin, 2021.
"Dynamic Evaluation Design,"
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 300-331, November.
- Smolin, Alex, 2017. "Dynamic Evaluation Design," MPRA Paper 84133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
- Klein, Nicolas & Mylovanov, Tymofiy, 2017. "Will truth out?—An advisor’s quest to appear competent," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 112-121.
- Gabriele Gratton & Richard Holden & Anton Kolotilin, 2018.
"When to Drop a Bombshell,"
Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 2139-2172.
- Gabriele Gratton & Richard Holden & Anton Kolotilin, 2016. "When to Drop a Bombshell," Discussion Papers 2016-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Prendergast, Canice & Stole, Lars, 1996. "Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Old-Timers: Acquiring a Reputation for Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1105-1134, December.
- Mariano, Beatriz, 2012. "Market power and reputational concerns in the ratings industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1616-1626.
- Mathias Dewatripont & Ian Jewitt & Jean Tirole, 1999.
"The Economics of Career Concerns, Part I: Comparing Information Structures,"
Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 183-198.
- Mathias Dewatripont & Ian Jewitt & Jean Tirole, 1999. "The economics of career concerns, part I: Comparing information structures," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/166777, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, February.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
- Joel Sobel, 1985. "A Theory of Credibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 557-573.
- Mathias Dewatripont & Ian Jewitt & Jean Tirole, 1999.
"The Economics of Career Concerns, Part I: Comparing Information Structures,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 183-198.
- Mathias Dewatripont & Ian Jewitt & Jean Tirole, 1999. "The economics of career concerns: part 1 :comparing information structures," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9617, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Crawford, Vincent P & Sobel, Joel, 1982.
"Strategic Information Transmission,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1431-1451, November.
- V. Crawford & J. Sobel, 2010. "Strategic Information Transmission," Levine's Working Paper Archive 544, David K. Levine.
- Dan Bernhardt & Chi Wan & Zhijie Xiao, 2016. "The Reluctant Analyst," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 987-1040, September.
- Krishna, Vijay & Morgan, John, 2004. "The art of conversation: eliciting information from experts through multi-stage communication," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 147-179, August.
- Steven R. Grenadier & Andrey Malenko & Nadya Malenko, 2016. "Timing Decisions in Organizations: Communication and Authority in a Dynamic Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2552-2581, September.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Egor Starkov, 2020.
"Only Time Will Tell: Credible Dynamic Signaling,"
Discussion Papers
20-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Egor Starkov, 2020. "Only Time Will Tell: Credible Dynamic Signaling," Papers 2007.09568, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Søren Johansen & Anders Ryghn Swensen, 2021.
"Adjustment coefficients and exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models,"
CREATES Research Papers
2021-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Soeren Johansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2021. "Adjustment coefficients and exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Discussion Papers 21-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Mariano, Beatriz, 2012. "Market power and reputational concerns in the ratings industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1616-1626.
- Pavesi, Filippo & Scotti, Massimo, 2022.
"Good lies,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
- Filippo Pavesi & Massimo Scotti, 2019. "Good Lies," Working Paper Series 39, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006.
"The strategy of professional forecasting,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2004. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," FRU Working Papers 2004/05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
- Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006.
"Professional advice,"
Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 120-142, January.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Sorensen, 1999. "Professional Advice," Game Theory and Information 9906003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Schottmüller, Christoph, 2019.
"Too good to be truthful: Why competent advisers are fired,"
Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 333-360.
- Christoph Schottmüller, 2016. "Too good to be truthful: Why competent advisers are fired," Discussion Papers 16-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Liu, Yaozhou Franklin & Sanyal, Amal, 2012.
"When second opinions hurt: A model of expert advice under career concerns,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-16.
- Liu, Yaozhou Franklin & Sanyal, Amal, 2010. "When Second Opinions Hurt: A Model of Expert Advice under Career Conce rns," Working Papers 2010-08, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Liu, Yaozhou Franklin & Sanyal, Amal, 2010. "When second opinions hurt: a model of expert advice under career concerns," MPRA Paper 27176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clarke, Jonathan & Subramanian, Ajay, 2006.
"Dynamic forecasting behavior by analysts: Theory and evidence,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 81-113, April.
- Ajay Subramanian & Jonathan Clarke, 2004. "Dynamic Forecasting Behavior by Analysts: Theory and Evidence," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 546, Econometric Society.
- Marinovic, Iván & Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter, 2013. "Forecasters’ Objectives and Strategies," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 690-720, Elsevier.
- Balmaceda, Felipe, 2021. "Private vs. public communication: Difference of opinion and reputational concerns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
- Di Maggio, Marco, 2009. "Accountability and Cheap Talk," MPRA Paper 18652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thomas, Caroline, 2019. "Experimentation with reputation concerns – Dynamic signalling with changing types," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 366-415.
- Dasgupta, Amil & Sarafidis, Yianis, 2009. "Managers as administrators: Reputation and incentives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 155-163, May.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2002. "Professional Advice: The Theory of Reputational Cheap Talk," Discussion Papers 02-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Zitzewitz, Eric, 2001. "Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers," Research Papers 1802, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Andrea Prat, 2005.
"The Wrong Kind of Transparency,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 862-877, June.
- Andrea Prat, 2002. "The Wrong Kind of Transparency," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 439, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Prat, Andrea, 2003. "The Wrong Kind of Transparency," CEPR Discussion Papers 3859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Prat, Andrea, 2002. "The wrong kind of transparency," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3679, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Prat, Andrea, 2004. "The wrong kind of transparency," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24712, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Xiaojing Meng, 2015. "Analyst Reputation, Communication, and Information Acquisition," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 119-173, March.
- Klein, Nicolas & Mylovanov, Tymofiy, 2017. "Will truth out?—An advisor’s quest to appear competent," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 112-121.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich & Brozynski, Torsten, 2006.
"The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1753-1766, October.
- Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2004. "The Impact of Experience on Risk Taking, Overconfidence, and Herding of Fund Managers: Complementary Survey Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-292, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Friesen, Geoffrey & Weller, Paul A., 2006. "Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 333-365, November.
More about this item
Keywords
Career concerns; reputation; dynamic games; games of timing; strategic information transmission;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-GTH-2019-11-18 (Game Theory)
- NEP-MIC-2019-11-18 (Microeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seizhch.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marita Kieser (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seizhch.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.