IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kud/kuiedp/2107.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Adjustment coefficients and exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models

Author

Listed:
  • Soeren Johansen
  • Anders Rygh Swensen

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

In cointegrated vector autoregressive models exact linear rational expectation relations can imply restrictions on the adjustment parameters. We show how such restrictions can be tested, in particular when the restrictions imply weak exogeneity of some variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Soeren Johansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2021. "Adjustment coefficients and exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Discussion Papers 21-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:2107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economics.ku.dk/research/publications/wp/dp-2020/2005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1982. "Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 263-296.
    2. Tiziano De Angelis & Erik Ekström & Kristoffer Glover, 2022. "Dynkin Games with Incomplete and Asymmetric Information," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 560-586, February.
    3. Marco Battaglini, 2002. "Multiple Referrals and Multidimensional Cheap Talk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1379-1401, July.
    4. Aleksei Smirnov & Egor Starkov, 2022. "Bad News Turned Good: Reversal under Censorship," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 506-560, May.
    5. Emir Kamenica & Matthew Gentzkow, 2011. "Bayesian Persuasion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2590-2615, October.
    6. Ausubel, Lawrence M. & Cramton, Peter & Deneckere, Raymond J., 2002. "Bargaining with incomplete information," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 50, pages 1897-1945, Elsevier.
    7. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(4), pages 1010-1039, October.
    8. Aleksei Smirnov & Egor Starkov, 2019. "Timing of predictions in dynamic cheap talk: experts vs. quacks," ECON - Working Papers 334, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Georg Noldeke & Eric van Damme, 1990. "Signalling in a Dynamic Labour Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 1-23.
    10. Raymond Deneckere & Meng-Yu Liang, 2006. "Bargaining with Interdependent Values," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(5), pages 1309-1364, September.
    11. Boug, Pål & Cappelen, Adne & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 858-874, May.
    12. Kaya, Ayça, 2009. "Repeated signaling games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 841-854, July.
    13. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1986. "Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 796-821, August.
    14. Bond, Philip & Zhong, Hongda, 2016. "Buying high and selling low: stock repurchases and persistent asymmetric information," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67011, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. John K.‐H. Quah & Bruno Strulovici, 2012. "Aggregating the Single Crossing Property," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2333-2348, September.
    16. William Fuchs & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2010. "Bargaining with Arrival of New Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 802-836, June.
    17. Philip Bond & Hongda Zhong, 2016. "Buying High and Selling Low: Stock Repurchases and Persistent Asymmetric Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(6), pages 1409-1452.
    18. Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1999. "Education Signalling with Preemptive Offers," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(4), pages 949-970.
    19. Archishman Chakraborty & Rick Harbaugh, 2010. "Persuasion by Cheap Talk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2361-2382, December.
      • Archishman Chakraborty & Rick Harbaugh, 2006. "Persuasion by Cheap Talk," Working Papers 2006-10, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, revised Oct 2009.
    20. Susan Athey, 2002. "Monotone Comparative Statics under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 187-223.
    21. Weiss, Andrew, 1983. "A Sorting-cum-Learning Model of Education," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 420-442, June.
    22. Leland, Hayne E & Pyle, David H, 1977. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 371-387, May.
    23. In-Koo Cho & David M. Kreps, 1987. "Signaling Games and Stable Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 179-221.
    24. John G. Riley, 2001. "Silver Signals: Twenty-Five Years of Screening and Signaling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 432-478, June.
    25. Sander Heinsalu, 2018. "Dynamic Noisy Signaling," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 225-249, May.
    26. Milgrom, Paul & Shannon, Chris, 1994. "Monotone Comparative Statics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 157-180, January.
    27. Brendan Daley & Brett Green, 2012. "Waiting for News in the Market for Lemons," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1433-1504, July.
    28. Banks, Jeffrey S & Sobel, Joel, 1987. "Equilibrium Selection in Signaling Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 647-661, May.
    29. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    30. Mathias Drton, 2004. "Multimodality of the likelihood in the bivariate seemingly unrelated regressions model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(2), pages 383-392, June.
    31. Chakraborty, Archishman & Harbaugh, Rick, 2007. "Comparative cheap talk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 70-94, January.
      • Archishman Chakraborty & Rick Harbaugh, 2004. "Comparative Cheap Talk," Working Papers 2004-08, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    32. Greg LeBlanc, 1992. "Signalling Strength: Limit Pricing and Predatory Pricing," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 23(4), pages 493-506, Winter.
    33. Oberhofer, W & Kmenta, J, 1974. "A General Procedure for Obtaining Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Generalized Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 579-590, May.
    34. Ayca Kaya, 2013. "Dynamics of price and advertising as quality signals: anything goes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1556-1564.
    35. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    36. Francesc Dilmé & Fei Li, 2016. "Dynamic Signaling with Dropout Risk," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 57-82, February.
    37. Bagwell, Kyle & Riordan, Michael H, 1991. "High and Declining Prices Signal Product Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 224-239, March.
    38. Grossman, Sanford J. & Perry, Motty, 1986. "Sequential bargaining under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 120-154, June.
    39. Vettas, Nikolaos, 1997. "On the Informational Role of Quantities: Durable Goods and Consumers' Word-of-Mouth Communication," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(4), pages 915-944, November.
    40. Lai, Ernest K., 2014. "Expert advice for amateurs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-16.
    41. Søren Johansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2004. "More on testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models: Restricted constant and linear term," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 389-397, December.
    42. Johansen, Soren & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 1999. "Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 73-91, November.
    43. Anat R. Admati & Motty Perry, 1987. "Strategic Delay in Bargaining," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(3), pages 345-364.
    44. Sen, Arijit, 2000. "Multidimensional Bargaining under Asymmetric Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(2), pages 425-450, May.
    45. Ayça Kaya & Kyungmin Kim, 2018. "Trading Dynamics with Private Buyer Signals in the Market for Lemons," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2318-2352.
    46. Jihong Lee & Qingmin Liu, 2013. "Gambling Reputation: Repeated Bargaining With Outside Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1601-1672, July.
    47. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Starkov, Egor, 2023. "Only time will tell: Credible dynamic signaling," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Daley, Brendan & Green, Brett, 2014. "Market signaling with grades," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 114-145.
    3. Kremer, Ilan & Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2007. "Dynamic signaling and market breakdown," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 58-82, March.
    4. Barsanetti, Bruno & Camargo, Braz, 2022. "Signaling in dynamic markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    5. Dilmé, Francesc, 2019. "Dynamic quality signaling with hidden actions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 116-136.
    6. Dilmé, Francesc, 2017. "Noisy signaling in discrete time," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 13-25.
    7. Kaya, Ayça, 2009. "Repeated signaling games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 841-854, July.
    8. Heinsalu, Sander, 2017. "Good signals gone bad: Dynamic signalling with switched effort levels," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 132-141.
    9. Francesc Dilme & Fei Li, 2013. "Dynamic Education Signaling with Dropout Risk, Third Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-014, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 24 Apr 2014.
    10. Sander Heinsalu, 2017. "Good signals gone bad: dynamic signalling with switching efforts," Papers 1707.04699, arXiv.org.
    11. Flavio Toxvaerd, 2017. "Dynamic limit pricing," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 48(1), pages 281-306, March.
    12. Manuel Adelino & Kristopher Gerardi & Barney Hartman-Glaser, 2016. "Are Lemons Sold First? Dynamic Signaling in the Mortgage Market," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Archishman Chakraborty & Rick Harbaugh, 2014. "Persuasive Puffery," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 382-400, May.
      • Archishman Chakraborty & Rick Harbaugh, 2012. "Persuasive Puffery," Working Papers 2012-05, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    14. Brendan Daley & Brett Green, 2012. "Waiting for News in the Market for Lemons," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1433-1504, July.
    15. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    16. Mike Burkart & Samuel Lee, 2016. "Smart Buyers," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 239-270.
    17. Govindan, Srihari & Wilson, Robert B., 2008. "Decision-Theoretic Forward Induction," Research Papers 1986, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    18. Yao, Zhiyong, 2012. "Bargaining over incentive contracts," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 98-106.
    19. Zhiyong Yao, 2015. "Immediate Settlement Or Enduring A Strike: The Choice Of Signals," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(4), pages 324-335, October.
    20. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Hartman-Glaser, Barney, 2019. "Are lemons sold first? Dynamic signaling in the mortgage market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 1-25.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Abstract; Exact rational expectations; Cointegrated VAR model; Reduced rank regression; Adjustment coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:2107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Hoffmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/okokudk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.