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Do FOMC members herd?

  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
  • Tillmann, Peter

We show that growth and unemployment forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members do not exhibit herding behavior, while the inflation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for non-voting members than for voters.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511002837
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 113 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 176-179

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:113:y:2011:i:2:p:176-179
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.07.016
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 07-035, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  2. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
  3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?," NBER Working Papers 13751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Strategic forecasting on the FOMC," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 547-553, September.
  5. William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," Working Papers 2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Forecast disagreement among FOMC members," Working Papers 2009-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. William T. Gavin, 2003. "FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?," Working Papers 2003-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. David H. Romer, 2009. "A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC," NBER Working Papers 15208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. William T. Gavin & Geetanjali Pande, 2008. "FOMC consensus forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 149-164.
  10. Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Using FOMC forecasts to forecast the economy," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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