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Is the U.S. Fed Voting Record Informative about Future Monetary Policy?

We examine the information content of U.S. Fed voting records under the Greenspan chairmanship. We find that the voting records of FOMC members, as captured by the difference between the average voted-for and actually implemented policy rate, signal the future course of monetary policy. The committee bias, an official statement on how the Fed is leaning in terms of its next interest rate move, is found to improve monetary policy predictability, too. On the other hand, the voting of alternate members, who actively contribute to the discussions at the monetary policy meetings but whose votes do not count for setting the interest rate, does not have predictive power and is more in line with that of the chairman.

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Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 62 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 478-484

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:62:y:2012:i:6:p:478-484
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  1. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Do FOMC members herd?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 176-179.
    • Jan-Christoph Rülke & Peter Tillmann, 2010. "Do FOMC Members Herd?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201032, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-45, December.
  3. Ellen E. Meade & David Stasavage, 2004. "Publicity of Debate and the Incentive to Dissent: Evidence from the US Federal Reserve," CEP Discussion Papers dp0608, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova & Marco Lo Duca, 2012. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Paper Research 229, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Roman Horváth & Kateřina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2012. "Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy," Working Papers 316, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  6. Henry W. Chappell, Jr. & Rob Roy McGregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2005. "Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy: Evidence from Historical Records of the Federal Open Market Committee," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033305, June.
  7. Riboni, Alessandro & Ruge-Murcia, Francesco, 2011. "Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7718, Paris Dauphine University.
  8. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, 06.
  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2013. "Dispersed communication by central bank committees and the predictability of monetary policy decisions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 223-244, October.
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