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Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy

Author

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  • Roman Horváth

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague and IOS, Regensburg)

  • Katerina Šmídková

    (Czech National Bank and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

  • Jan Zápal

    (London School of Economics, CERGE-EI, Prague and IAE-CSIC, Barcelona)

Abstract

We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy using data on five inflation-targeting countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). We find that in all countries the voting records, namely the difference between the average voted-for and actually implemented policy rate, signal future monetary policy, making a case for publishing the records. This result holds even if we control for the financial market expectations, include the voting records from the period covering the current global financial crisis, and examine the differences in timing and style of the voting record announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth & Katerina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2012. "Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:4:a:1
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    Cited by:

    1. Roman Horvath, 2020. "Peer Effects in Central Banking," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 764-814, December.
    2. Lucjan T Orlowski & Anna Tsibulina, 2014. "Integration of Central and Eastern European and the Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions from the Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 376-395, September.
    3. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Financial markets and dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2012. "Is the U.S. Fed Voting Record Informative about Future Monetary Policy?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 478-484, December.
    6. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek, January.
    7. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2018. "Central Banks' Predictability: An Assessment by Financial Market Participants," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 163-185, September.
    8. Roman Horváth & Katerina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2012. "Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Predicting Bank of England's asset purchase decisions with MPC voting records," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1275-1278, September.
    10. Horváth Roman & Šmídková Kateřina & Zápal Jan, 2016. "Voting in Central Banks: Theory versus Stylized Facts," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-62, October.
    11. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Financial Markets and Dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202048, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, January.
    13. Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2014. "The dissent voting behaviour of central bankers: what do we really know?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 450-461, February.
    14. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram, 2015. "Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?," Working Paper Series 1808, European Central Bank.
    15. Carlos Madeira & Joao Madeira, 2015. "Dissent in FOMC Meeting and the Announcement Drift," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 749, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Petra Geraats, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4611, CESifo.
    17. A. Jung, 2013. "Policymakers’ Interest Rate Preferences: Recent Evidence for Three Monetary Policy Committees," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 150-197, September.
    18. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.
    19. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Monetary policy and stock returns under the MPC and inflation targeting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 109-116.
    20. Jaromir Baxa & Michal Franta & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Miroslav Plasil & Marek Rusnak & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Transmission of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 11, number rb11/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.
    21. Jose Peydro Alcalde & Sona Benecka & Alexis Derviz & Adam Gersl & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Dorota Kowalczyk & Ivana Kubicova & Steven Ongena & Jakub Ry, 2012. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 10, number rb10/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.
    22. Roman HORVATH & Pavel KARAS, 2013. "Central Bank Communication and Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech National Bank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 454-464, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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