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Predicting Bank of England's asset purchase decisions with MPC voting records

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  • Matthias Neuenkirch

Abstract

We use the MPC voting records to predict changes in the volume of asset purchases. We find, first, that minority voting favouring an increase in the volume of asset purchases raises the probability of an actual increase at the next meeting. Second, minority voting supporting a higher Bank Rate decreases the likelihood of further asset purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Predicting Bank of England's asset purchase decisions with MPC voting records," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1275-1278, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:13:p:1275-1278
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.806779
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sirchenko, Andrei, 2010. "Policymakers' Votes and Predictability of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8qj3z3qg, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Roman Horváth & Katerina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2012. "Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
    3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    4. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2009. "Outsiders at the Bank of England's MPC," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1099-1115, September.
    5. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Greene, William H. & Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N. & Spencer, Christopher, 2013. "The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-04, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Pierre L. Siklos & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2015. "How Monetary Policy Is Made: Two Canadian Tales," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(1), pages 225-250, January.
    3. William H Greene & Mark N Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2013. "Estimating the Standard Errors of Individual-Specific Parameters in Random Parameters Models," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1309, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    4. Belderbos, Rene & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Fukao, Kyoji & Kim, Young Gak & Kwon, Hyeog Ug, 2013. "Plant Productivity Dynamics and Private and Public R&D Spillovers: Technological, Geographic and Relational Proximity," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-05, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Horváth, Roman & Jonášová, Júlia, 2015. "Central banks' voting records, the financial crisis and future monetary policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 229-243.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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