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Central Banks' Predictability: An Assessment by Financial Market Participants

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Hayo

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    (University of Trier)

Abstract

Our analysis of central banks' predictability is based on a unique data set of almost 500 market participants worldwide who were asked questions with respect to the performance of the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve. Our results indicate a positive and economically notable relationship between central banks' ability to convey their objectives and their overall communication skills on the one hand, and market participants' perception of the banks' predictability on the other hand. The perceived importance of disseminating more specific information does not contribute to better central bank predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2018. "Central Banks' Predictability: An Assessment by Financial Market Participants," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 163-185, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:3:a:4
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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other

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