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Predicting Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Decisions with MPC Voting Records

Author

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  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    () (University of Aachen)

Abstract

We use MPC voting records to predict changes in the volume of asset purchases. We find, first, that minority voting favoring an increase in the volume of asset purchases raises the probability of an actual increase at the next meeting. Second, minority voting supporting a higher Bank Rate decreases the likelihood of further asset purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Predicting Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Decisions with MPC Voting Records," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201322, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201322
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    File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/22-2013_neuenkirch.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sirchenko, Andrei, 2010. "Policymakers' Votes and Predictability of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8qj3z3qg, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Roman Horváth & Katerina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2012. "Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Greene, William H. & Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N. & Spencer, Christopher, 2013. "The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-04, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Pierre L. Siklos & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2015. "How Monetary Policy Is Made: Two Canadian Tales," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(1), pages 225-250, January.
    3. William H Greene & Mark N Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2013. "Estimating the Standard Errors of Individual-Specific Parameters in Random Parameters Models," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1309, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    4. Belderbos, Rene & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Fukao, Kyoji & Kim, Young Gak & Kwon, Hyeog Ug, 2013. "Plant Productivity Dynamics and Private and Public R&D Spillovers: Technological, Geographic and Relational Proximity," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-05, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Horváth, Roman & Jonášová, Júlia, 2015. "Central banks' voting records, the financial crisis and future monetary policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 229-243.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Purchases; Bank of England; Monetary Policy; Monetary Policy Committee; Predictability; Voting Records;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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