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Central Banks Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy

Author

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  • Roman Horvath

    () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, Regensburg, Germany)

  • Júlia Jonasova

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We examine whether central banks’ voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, first, we examine the period of the global financial crisis, characterized by a high level of uncertainty, and second, we examine the predictive power of voting records at longer time horizons, i.e., not only for the next monetary policy meeting. We find that voting records predict the policy rate set at the next meeting in all central banks that are recognized as independent. In some central banks, voting records are found—before, but not during, the financial crisis—to be informative about monetary policy even at more distant time horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horvath & Júlia Jonasova, 2014. "Central Banks Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy," Working Papers IES 2014/35, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2014_35
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/sci/publication/show/id/5227/lang/cs
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2018. "Central Banks' Predictability: An Assessment by Financial Market Participants," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 163-185, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    voting records; financial crisis; central bank; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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