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Do Federal Reserve presidents communicate with a regional bias?

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  • Hayo, Bernd
  • Neuenkirch, Matthias

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of US monetary policy stance as expressed in speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials over the period January 1998–September 2009. Econometrically, we use a probit model with regional and national macroeconomic variables to explain the content of these speeches. Our results are, first, that a rise in the inflation rate or the Leading Index makes a hawkish speech more likely. Second, when Fed presidents make a speech in their home district, its content is influenced by both regional and national macroeconomic variables, whereas speeches given outside the home district are influenced solely by national information. Third, the influence of regional variables increases during (i) Ben Bernanke’s tenure as Fed Chairman, (ii) recessions, and (iii) the financial crisis. Finally, speeches by nonvoting presidents reflect regional economic development to a greater extent than those by voting presidents.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Do Federal Reserve presidents communicate with a regional bias?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 62-72.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:62-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.10.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; Disagreement; Federal Reserve; Monetary policy; Regional representation; Speeches;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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