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Does politics drive conflict in central banks’ committees? Lifting the veil on the European Central Bank consensus

Author

Listed:
  • Manuela Moschella

    (Faculty of Political and Social Sciences, Scuola Normale Superiore, Florence, Italy)

  • Nicola M Diodati

    (Faculty of Political and Social Sciences, Scuola Normale Superiore, Florence, Italy)

Abstract

This study investigates whether and to what extent political factors drive disagreement within the allegedly consensual monetary committee of the European Central Bank. Absent voting data, the article assesses disagreement based on the semantic distance between the policy positions publicly articulated by the European Central Bank President and the central banks of Eurozone member states. The empirical analysis shows that the disagreement articulated by national central bankers is affected by the ideological inclinations of the governments of the countries they represent. Our findings thus suggest that central bankers’ position-taking is shaped not only by economic conditions but also by domestic political considerations. This result challenges the European Central Bank’s projected image of itself as an institution whose members are impermeable to domestic political pressures as a way to defend the independence of the institution to which they belong.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuela Moschella & Nicola M Diodati, 2020. "Does politics drive conflict in central banks’ committees? Lifting the veil on the European Central Bank consensus," European Union Politics, , vol. 21(2), pages 183-203, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:21:y:2020:i:2:p:183-203
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116519890412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Massoc, Elsa C., 2022. "Climate change versus price stability: How "green" central bankers and members of the European parliament became pragmatic (yet precarious) bedfellows," LawFin Working Paper Series 33, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).
    4. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco, 2024. "Redefining Scientisation: Central Banks between Science and Politics," SocArXiv dxvfp, Center for Open Science.
    5. Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "Monetary policy decision-making by committee: Why, when and how it can work," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Koop, Christel & Scotto di Vettimo, Michele, 2023. "How do the media scrutinise central banking? Evidence from the Bank of England," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Mattias Vermeiren, 2025. "Defining Price Stability: Public Accountability of the European Central Bank’s Goal Independence," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 13.
    8. Fontan, Clément & Goutsmedt, Aurélien, 2023. "The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)," SocArXiv 92r54, Center for Open Science.
    9. Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "The (Not So) Quiet Period: Communication by ECB Decision-makers during Monetary Policy Blackout Days," CEPR Discussion Papers 15735, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Hyunwoo Kim, 2023. "Monetary technocracy and democratic accountability: how central bank independence conditions economic voting," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 939-964, May.
    11. Jérôme Deyris & Bart Stellinga & Matthias Thiemann, 2026. "Central Bankers as Migrating Birds: How Inflation Shapes the Rhetorical Strategies of Doves and Hawks," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 787-810, March.
    12. Murau, Steffen & Giordano, Matteo, 2022. "European Monetary Unification through Novation. The Political Economy of the TARGET System," SocArXiv k3nbh_v1, Center for Open Science.

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