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Analysing monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank of India

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Abstract

We quantitatively analyse the monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) between 1998–2018, across five governor regimes. Using natural language processing tools, we show that there has been a persistent semantic shift in RBI’s monetary policy communication since adoption of inflation targeting. We construct measures of linguistic and structural complexity that capture governor-specific trends in communication. RBI’s communication is linguistically complex on average, but the length of monetary policy statements has gone down and readability has improved significantly recently. Our results indicate that lengthier statements are linked to higher volatility in equity and currency markets, but not bond markets.

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  • Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2019. "Analysing monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank of India," IHEID Working Papers 08-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp08-2019
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Covid-19 and Corporate India
      by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog on 2020-07-01 05:44:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2019. "Inflation convergence and anchoring of expectations in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-023, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Qualitative and quantitative Central Bank communications and professional forecasts: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Mathur, Aakriti & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Pratap, Bhanu, 2024. "Equity market responses to surprise Covid-19 lockdowns: The role of pandemic-driven uncertainty," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Vaishali Garga & Aeimit Lakdawala & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2022. "Assessing central bank commitment to inflation targeting: Evidence from financial market expectations in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-017, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta & Bhanu Pratap, 2022. "Saved by the bell? Equity market responses to surprise Covid-19 lockdowns and central bank interventions," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. Aeimit Lakdawala & Bhanu Pratap & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2023. "Impact of RBI’s monetary policy announcements on government bond yields: evidence from the pandemic," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 261-291, September.
    7. Saibal Ghosh, 2022. "Does financial interconnectedness affect monetary transmission? Evidence from India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 273-300, September.
    8. Mr. Faisal Ahmed & Mahir Binici & Mr. Jarkko Turunen, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communication and Financial Markets in India," IMF Working Papers 2022/209, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Aeimit Lakdawala & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    10. Kishor, N. Kundan & Pratap, Bhanu, 2023. "The Role of Inflation Targeting in Anchoring Long-Run Inflation Expectations: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 118951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Abhishek Ranjan & Siddhartha Nath, 2024. "Changing Contours Of Policy Communications In India," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(3), pages 435-458, July.
    12. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2020. "Building Credibility and Influencing Expectations The Evolution of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 10144, South African Reserve Bank.
    13. Haryo Kuncoro & Gatot Nazir Ahmad & Dianta Sebayang, 2021. "A textual analysis of central bank communication the case of Indonesia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 2158-2172.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; central bank communication; linguistic complexity; financial markets; textual analysis; natural language processing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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