IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/2014-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Response of Stock Market Volatility to Futures-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolay Gospodinov
  • Ibrahim Jamali

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic response of stock market volatility to changes in monetary policy. Using a vector autoregressive model, our findings reveal a significant and asymmetric response of stock returns and volatility to monetary policy shocks. Although the increase in the volatility risk premium, futures-trading volume, and leverage appear to contribute to a short-term increase in volatility, the longer-term dynamics of volatility are dominated by monetary policy's effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not respond to the stock market at a high frequency, but they also suggest that market participants' uncertainty regarding the monetary stance affects stock market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali, 2014. "The Response of Stock Market Volatility to Futures-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2014-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/research/publications/wp/2014/wp1414.pdf?la=en
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
    4. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    5. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J., 1993. "Price Volatility, Trading Volume, and Market Depth: Evidence from Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 21-39, March.
    6. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, June.
    7. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Expected monetary policy and the dynamics of bank lending rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 542-551.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    9. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    10. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    11. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    12. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    13. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2014. "The effects of monetary policy on stock returns: Financing constraints and “informative” and “uninformative” FOMC statements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 273-290.
    14. Hao Zhou, 2010. "Variance risk premia, asset predictability puzzles, and macroeconomic uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. "Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
    16. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    17. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    18. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    19. Wu, Guojun, 2001. "The Determinants of Asymmetric Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 837-859.
    20. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    21. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    22. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
    23. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
    24. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    25. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    26. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
    27. Federico M. Bandi & Benoit Perron, 2006. "Long Memory and the Relation Between Implied and Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 636-670.
    28. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    29. Lee, Jim, 2006. "The impact of federal funds target changes on interest rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 241-259.
    30. Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-17, March.
    31. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    32. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    33. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 825-837, April.
    34. Tse, Y. K., 2000. "A test for constant correlations in a multivariate GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 107-127, September.
    35. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. "Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-1972, December.
    36. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    2. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    3. Kapp, Daniel & Kristiansen, Kristian, 2021. "Euro area equity risk premia and monetary policy: a longer-term perspective," Working Paper Series 2535, European Central Bank.
    4. Apergis, Nicholas & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Cooray, Arusha, 2020. "Monetary policy and commodity markets: Unconventional versus conventional impact and the role of economic uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Fang Fang & Weijia Dong & Xin Lv, 2016. "Asymmetric Reactions of China¡¯s Stock Market to Short-term Interest Rates," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(5), pages 260-270, May.
    6. Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2019. "Analysing monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank of India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    7. Jiang, Yonghong & Ao, Zhiming & Mo, Bin, 2023. "The risk spillover between China’s economic policy uncertainty and commodity markets: Evidence from frequency spillover and quantile connectedness approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Chen, Wei & Xu, Huilin & Jia, Lifen & Gao, Ying, 2021. "Machine learning model for Bitcoin exchange rate prediction using economic and technology determinants," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 28-43.
    9. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Picault, Matthieu & Raffestin, Louis, 2020. "The other side of forward guidance: Are central banks constrained by financial markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    11. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Trinh Thi Mai & Moade Shubita, 2021. "Development of Vietnamese stock market: Influence of domestic macroeconomic environment and regional markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1435-1458, January.
    12. Ahmed Al Samman & Mahmoud Moustafa Otaify, 2017. "How Does Volatility of Characteristics-sorted Portfolios Respond to Macroeconomic Volatility?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 300-315.
    13. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Hall, John H. & du Toit, Elda, 2021. "The lead–lag relationship between spot and futures prices: Empirical evidence from the Indian commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Tosin B. Fateye & Oluwaseun D. Ajay & Cyril A. Ajay, 2021. "Modelling of Daily Price Volatility of South Africa Property Stock Market Using GARCH Analysis," AfRES 2021-013, African Real Estate Society (AfRES).
    15. He, Feng & Ma, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yang, Bohan, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility spillover between oil-importing and oil-exporting countries' economic policy uncertainty and China's energy sector," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Feng He & Libo Yin, 2021. "Shocks to the equity capital ratio of financial intermediaries and the predictability of stock return volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 945-962, September.
    17. Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
    18. Prabu A, Edwin & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Ray, Partha, 2016. "Is the stock market impervious to monetary policy announcements: Evidence from emerging India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 166-179.
    19. Houssam Bouzgarrou & Tarek Chebbi, 2016. "The reaction of sovereign CDS spread volatilities to news announcements," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(5), pages 347-360, September.
    20. Julio Pindado & Ignacio Requejo & Juan C. Rivera, 2020. "Does money supply shape corporate capital structure? International evidence from a panel data analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 554-584, April.
    21. Lopomo Beteto Wegner, Danilo, 2015. "Government insurance, information, and asset prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-183.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
    2. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2018. "Volatility in equity markets and monetary policy rate uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 68-83.
    3. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2015. "A global factor in variance risk premia and local bond pricing," Bank of England working papers 576, Bank of England.
    4. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    5. Kurov, Alexander, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187.
    6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Volatility forecasting," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Yue, Tian & Ruan, Xinfeng & Gehricke, Sebastian & Zhang, Jin E., 2023. "The volatility index and volatility risk premium in China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 40-55.
    8. Helena Chuliá & Hipòlit Torró, 2008. "The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1066-1094, November.
    9. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    10. Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
    11. Sakshi Saini & Sanjay Sehgal & Florent Deisting, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Risk Aversion and Uncertainty in an International Context," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 24(3-4), pages 211-266, September.
    12. Hu, Grace Xing & Pan, Jun & Wang, Jiang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2022. "Premium for heightened uncertainty: Explaining pre-announcement market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 909-936.
    13. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    14. Nave, Juan M. & Ruiz, Javier, 2015. "Risk aversion and monetary policy in a global context," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 14-35.
    15. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chan, Kam C. & Cheng, Louis T. W. & Lung, Peter P., 2003. "Moneyness and the response of the implied volatilities to price changes: The empirical evidence from HSI options," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 527-553, September.
    17. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    18. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    19. Doojin RYU & Hyein SHIM, 2017. "Intraday Dynamics of Asset Returns, Trading Activities, and Implied Volatilities: A Trivariate GARCH Framework," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 45-61, June.
    20. Nicholas Taylor, 2010. "The Determinants of Future U.S. Monetary Policy: High‐Frequency Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 399-420, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market volatility; federal funds futures; monetary policy; variance risk premium; vector autoregressions; bivariate GARCH; leverage effect; volatility feedback effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2014-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rob Sarwark (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.