IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2010-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Variance risk premia, asset predictability puzzles, and macroeconomic uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Hao Zhou

Abstract

This paper presents predictability evidence from the difference between implied and expected variances or variance risk premium that: (1) the variance difference measure predicts a significant positive risk premium across equity, bond, and credit markets; (2) the predictability is short-run, in that it peaks around one to four months and dies out as the horizon increases; and (3) such a short-run predictability is complementary to that of the standard predictor variables--P/E ratio, forward spread, and short rate. These findings are potentially justifiable by a general equilibrium model with recursive preference that incorporates stochastic economic uncertainty. Calibration evidence suggests that such a framework is capable of reproducing the variance premium dynamics, especially its high skewness and kurtosis, without introducing jumps. The calibrated model can also qualitatively explain the equity premium puzzle and the bond risk premia in short horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Zhou, 2010. "Variance risk premia, asset predictability puzzles, and macroeconomic uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201014/201014abs.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201014/201014pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2014. "Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 431-467, December.
    2. Koedijk, Kees & Slager, Alfred & Stork, Philip, 2015. "Investing in Systematic Factor Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 10824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Fong, Wai Mun, 2013. "Footprints in the market: Hedge funds and the carry trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 41-59.
    4. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2015. "The response of stock market volatility to futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-54.
    5. González-Urteaga, Ana & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2016. "The cross-sectional variation of volatility risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 353-370.
    6. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    7. Banerji, Sanjay & Ventouri, Alexia & Wang, Zilong, 2014. "The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 566-576.
    8. Ozcan Ceylan, 2017. "Global Risk Aversion Spillover Dynamics and Investors' Attention Allocation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(1), pages 99-109, May.
    9. Hao Wang & Hao Zhou & Yi Zhou, 2011. "Credit default swap spreads and variance risk premia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Marcelo Ochoa, 2013. "Volatility, labor heterogeneity and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-71, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Juan M. Londono, 2011. "The variance risk premium around the world," International Finance Discussion Papers 1035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management ; Rate of return;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.