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Dating Business Cycles in India

Listed author(s):
  • Pandey, Radhika

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Patnaik, Ila

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Shah, Ajay

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

This paper presents a chronology of Indian business cycle in the post-reform period. The period before reforms primarily saw monsoon cycles. We find three episodes of recession in the post-reform period: 1999Q4 to 2003Q1, 2007Q2 to 2009Q3, and 2011Q2 to 2012Q4. We find that the average duration of expansion is 12 quarters and the average duration of recession is 9 quarters. The diversity in duration of expansion is seen to be 0.34 while the diversity in duration of recession is 0.31. We find that the amplitude of recession is relatively more diverse at 0.45 while the diversity in amplitude of expansion is 0.38.

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File URL: http://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2016/09/WP_2016_175.pdf
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Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 16/175.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: Sep 2016
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:16/175
Note: Working Paper 175, 2016
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

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  1. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2014. "Is India's Long-Term Trend Growth Declining?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 424, Asian Development Bank.
  2. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
  3. Halan, Monika & Sane, Renuka, 2016. "Misled and Mis-sold: Financial Misbehaviour in Retail Banks?," Working Papers 16/174, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  4. Sapre, Amey & Sinha, Pramod, 2016. "Some areas of concern about Indian Manufacturing Sector GDP estimation," Working Papers 16/172, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
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