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Dating Business Cycles in India

Author

Listed:
  • Pandey, Radhika

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Patnaik, Ila

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Shah, Ajay

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

This paper presents a chronology of Indian business cycle in the post-reform period. The period before reforms primarily saw monsoon cycles. We find three episodes of recession in the post-reform period: 1999Q4 to 2003Q1, 2007Q2 to 2009Q3, and 2011Q2 to 2012Q4. We find that the average duration of expansion is 12 quarters and the average duration of recession is 9 quarters. The diversity in duration of expansion is seen to be 0.34 while the diversity in duration of recession is 0.31. We find that the amplitude of recession is relatively more diverse at 0.45 while the diversity in amplitude of expansion is 0.38.

Suggested Citation

  • Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2016. "Dating Business Cycles in India," Working Papers 16/175, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:16/175 Note: Working Paper 175, 2016
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    File URL: http://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2016/09/WP_2016_175.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2014. "Is India's Long-Term Trend Growth Declining?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 424, Asian Development Bank.
    2. repec:eee:jcecon:v:45:y:2017:i:3:p:429-444 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    4. Sane, Renuka & Halan, Monika, 2017. "Misled and mis-sold: financial misbehaviour in retail banks?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 429-444.
    5. Sapre, Amey & Sinha, Pramod, 2016. "Some areas of concern about Indian Manufacturing Sector GDP estimation," Working Papers 16/172, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rajeswari Sengupta & Harsh Vardhan, 2017. "Non-performing assets in Indian Banks: This time it is different," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-019, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Rajeswari Sengupta & Harsh Vardhan, 2017. "Non-Performing Assets in Indian Banks: This Time it is Different," Working Papers id:12102, eSocialSciences.
    3. Sharma, Ram Sewak, 2016. "UIDAI's Public Policy Innovations," Working Papers 16/176, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Rajeswari Sengupta & Harsh Vardhan, 2017. "Non-Performing Assets in Indian Banks: This Time it is Different," Working Papers id:12102, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle ; Growth Cycle ; Detrending ; Stabilisation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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