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Dating Business Cycles in India

Author

Listed:
  • Pandey, Radhika

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Patnaik, Ila

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Shah, Ajay

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

This paper presents a chronology of Indian business cycle in the post-reform period. The period before reforms primarily saw monsoon cycles. We find three episodes of recession in the post-reform period: 1999Q4 to 2003Q1, 2007Q2 to 2009Q3, and 2011Q2 to 2012Q4. We find that the average duration of expansion is 12 quarters and the average duration of recession is 9 quarters. The diversity in duration of expansion is seen to be 0.34 while the diversity in duration of recession is 0.31. We find that the amplitude of recession is relatively more diverse at 0.45 while the diversity in amplitude of expansion is 0.38.

Suggested Citation

  • Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2016. "Dating Business Cycles in India," Working Papers 16/175, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:16/175
    Note: Working Paper 175, 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2010. "Why India Choked when Lehman Broke," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(1), pages 39-72.
    2. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2014. "Is India's Long-Term Trend Growth Declining?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 424, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Sane, Renuka & Halan, Monika, 2017. "Misled and mis-sold: financial misbehaviour in retail banks?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 429-444.
    4. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    5. Shah, Ajay & Patnaik, Ila, 2010. "Stabilising the Indian business cycle," Working Papers 10/67, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Sapre, Amey & Sinha, Pramod, 2016. "Some areas of concern about Indian Manufacturing Sector GDP estimation," Working Papers 16/172, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sengupta, Rajeswari & Vardhan, Harsh, 2017. "Non-performing assets in Indian Banks: This time it is different," MPRA Paper 81403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Sep 2017.
    2. Utso Pal Mustafi & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2020. "Regime changes in Indias monetary policy and Tenures of RBI governors," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Ritabrata Bose & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Disaggregated Indian industrial cycles: A Spectral analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-033, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2019. "Analysing monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank of India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Pattanaik, Arpita & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2018. "Business cycle effect on leverage: A study of Indian non-financial firms," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2018-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. Nouran Hussein & Jasmin Fouad, 2020. "When the Art of Macroeconomic Management Confronts the Evolution of Business Cycles: Zooming into the Egyptian Case," International Journal of Business and Management, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(1), pages 11-34, May.
    7. Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2019. "Business Cycle Measurement in India," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 121-152, Springer.
    8. Kaveri Krishnan & Sankarshan Basu & Ashok Thampy, 2020. "Has the Global Financial Crisis Changed the Market Response to Credit Ratings? Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(1), pages 7-32, April.
    9. Sharma, Ram Sewak, 2016. "UIDAI's Public Policy Innovations," Working Papers 16/176, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle ; Growth Cycle ; Detrending ; Stabilisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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