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Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries: Evidence from India

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  • Ms. Prachi Mishra
  • Rajeswari Sengupta
  • Mr. Peter J Montiel

Abstract

We examine the strength of monetary transmission in India, using a conventional structural VAR methodology. We find that a tightening of monetary policy is associated with a significant increase in bank lending rates and conventional effects on the exchange rate, though pass-through to lending rates is only partial and exchange rate effects are weak. We could find no significant effects on real output or the inflation rate. Though the message for the effectiveness of monetary transmission in India is therefore mixed, our results for India are more favorable than is often found for other developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Prachi Mishra & Rajeswari Sengupta & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2016. "Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries: Evidence from India," IMF Working Papers 2016/167, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/167
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhan, Shurui & Tang, Yangfei & Li, Shuai & Yao, Yaojun & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "How does the money market development impact the bank lending channel of emerging Countries? A case from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2017. "Households' Inflation Expectations in India: Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Financial Uncertainty Spill-over," Working Papers id:11890, eSocialSciences.
    4. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2021. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. S. Gangadaran, 2017. "Inflation in India: Behavior of Major Components," Working Papers wp18, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    6. Muduli, Silu & Behera, Harendra, 2020. "Bank Capital and Monetary Policy Transmission in India," MPRA Paper 103676, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies and Transmission Dynamics in India," MPRA Paper 88566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Simon, Carl Nally Regi, 2017. "Les canaux de transmission de la politique monetaire en Haiti: une approche narrative (1996-2016) [Monetary transmission channels in Haiti: a narrative approach (1996-2016)]," MPRA Paper 78294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shesadri Banerjee & Parantap Basu & Chetan Ghate, 2020. "A Monetary Business Cycle Model For India," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1362-1386, July.
    10. Dixit, Shiv & Subramanian, Krishnamurthy, 2020. "Bank Coordination and Monetary Transmission: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 103169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2019. "Analysing monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank of India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    12. Sarkar Sanjukta & Sensarma Rudra, 2017. "Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy: A Review of the Evidence and Some Preliminary Results for India," Working papers 250, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    13. Aeimit Lakdawala & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    14. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam & Choudhary, Rishabh, 2021. "Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 77-141.
    15. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2021. "Inflation expectations of households in India: Role of oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, and spillover of global financial uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 230-251, April.
    16. Li, Huan & Ni, Jinlan & Xu, Yueli & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Zulquar Nain & Bandi Kamaiah, 2020. "Uncertainty and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 237-265.
    18. Hénock Katuala, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Monetary Stability And Economic Growth In The Democratic Republic Of Congo [Politique Monetaire, Stabilite Monetaire Et Croissance Economique En Republique Democratique Du Congo]," Working Papers hal-02616124, HAL.
    19. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2016. "Global food prices and monetary policy in an emerging market economy: The case of India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-70.
    20. Manamani SAHOO, 2017. "Financial conditions index (FCI), inflation and growth: Some evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 147-172, Autumn.
    21. Ebrahimi , Nasrin & Pedram , Mehdi & Mousavi , Mir Hossein, 2020. "The Effect of Central Bank's Monetary Policy on Unemployment and Inflation in Provinces of Iran: A GVAR Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(1), pages 55-74, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; reverse repo; aggregate demand; interest rate; contractionary monetary policy; monetary policy; bank lending; India; monetary policy shock; monetary policy variable; reaction function; Taylor-type monetary policy rule; Central bank policy rate; Bank credit; Reverse repo rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rates; Global; Central and Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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