IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/kyklos/v71y2018i4p537-556.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Monetary Policy of the ECB: Caring for the Weakest Links

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Drometer
  • Thomas Siemsen
  • Sebastian Watzka

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which national economic conditions matter in the ECB's decision process. We employ various decision models to aggregate counterfactual national interest rates based on Taylor rule estimates and test which of the resulting interest paths fits best to the actual monetary policy in the euro area. As a novel feature, we introduce decision models where countries that fare economically worse than the euro area average obtain a higher weight in the decision process. Our results suggest that these models explain actual ECB policy better than GDP‐based bargaining models that have been highlighted in the previous literature. Thus, the ECB seems to have emphasized the needs of countries that face an economic crisis disproportionately highly even before the advent of the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Drometer & Thomas Siemsen & Sebastian Watzka, 2018. "The Monetary Policy of the ECB: Caring for the Weakest Links," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 537-556, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:71:y:2018:i:4:p:537-556
    DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12185
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12185
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/kykl.12185?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jung, Alexander & Latsos, Sophia, 2015. "Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 173-183.
    2. Yunus Aksoy & Paul De Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 2014. "Do Asymmetries Matter for European Monetary Policy?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 13, pages 321-353, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Friedrich Heinemann & Felix P. Huefner, 2004. "Is The View From The Eurotower Purely European? – National Divergence And Ecb Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 544-558, September.
    4. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB’s decision rule," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 37, pages 135-160, October.
    5. Alessandro Riboni & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2010. "Monetary Policy by Committee: Consensus, Chairman Dominance, or Simple Majority?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 363-416.
    6. Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Strategic forecasting on the FOMC," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 547-553, September.
    7. Helge Berger & Jakob Haan, 2002. "Are small countries too powerful within the ECB?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 263-282, September.
    8. Etienne Farvaque & Piotr Stanek & Stéphane Vigeant, 2014. "On the Performance of Monetary Policy Committees," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 177-203, May.
    9. Fabian Gunzinger & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "It's Politics, Stupid! Political Constraints Determined Governments' Reactions to the Great Recession," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 584-603, November.
    10. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    12. Meade, Ellen E & Sheets, D Nathan, 2005. "Regional Influences on FOMC Voting Patterns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 661-677, August.
    13. Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1114-1131, March.
    14. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2011. "Politics and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 941-960, August.
    15. Havrilesky, Thomas & Gildea, John, 1995. "The Biases of Federal Reserve Bank Presidents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 274-284, April.
    16. Woodford Michael, 2002. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-53, February.
    17. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
    18. Gros Daniel & Hefeker Carsten, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, August.
    19. Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1114-1131, March.
    20. Gildea, John A, 1992. "The Regional Representation of Federal Reserve Bank Presidents," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 215-225, May.
    21. Ullrich, Katrin, 2006. "An impact of country-specific economic developments on ECB decisions," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-049, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    22. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Eleftheriou, Maria, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7683 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB’s decision rule," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 37, pages 135-160, October.
    2. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Do Federal Reserve presidents communicate with a regional bias?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 62-72.
    3. Jung, Alexander & Latsos, Sophia, 2015. "Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 173-183.
    4. Badinger, Harald & Nitsch, Volker, 2014. "National representation in supranational institutions: The case of the European Central Bank," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 19-33.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Tietz, Robin & Visser, Bauke, 2021. "Voting right rotation, behavior of committee members and financial market reactions: evidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee," Working Paper Series 2569, European Central Bank.
    6. Helge Berger, 2006. "Optimal central bank design: Benchmarks for the ECB," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 207-235, September.
    7. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Edouard Turkisch, 2009. "The ECB Governing Council in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 25-53, January.
    8. Manuela Moschella & Nicola M Diodati, 2020. "Does politics drive conflict in central banks’ committees? Lifting the veil on the European Central Bank consensus," European Union Politics, , vol. 21(2), pages 183-203, June.
    9. Bennani, Hamza & Kranz, Tobias & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2018. "Disagreement between FOMC members and the Fed’s staff: New insights based on a counterfactual interest rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 139-153.
    10. Sousa, Pedro, 2009. "Do ECB Council Decisions represent always a Real Euro Consensus?," Working Papers 9/2009, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    11. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Edouard Turkisch, 2009. "The ECB Governing Council in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47, pages 25-53, January.
    12. Bennani, Hamza & Farvaque, Etienne & Stanek, Piotr, 2018. "Influence of regional cycles and personal background on FOMC members’ preferences and disagreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 416-424.
    13. Cancelo, José Ramón & Varela, Diego & Sánchez-Santos, José Manuel, 2011. "Interest rate setting at the ECB: Individual preferences and collective decision making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 804-820.
    14. James McNeil, 2020. "Modeling interest rate setting at the European Central Bank with bargaining models and counterfactuals," Working Papers daleconwp2020-03, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    15. Harald Badinger & Volker Nitsch, 2011. "National Representation in Multinational Institutions: The Case of the European Central Bank," CESifo Working Paper Series 3573, CESifo.
    16. repec:ces:ifodic:v:10:y:2012:i:1:p:18176872 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "How Large Is the Stress from the Common Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100341, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Helge Berger & Till Mueller, 2007. "How should large and small countries be represented in a currency union?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 471-484, September.
    19. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stress for Fed District Representatives," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 156-176, May.
    20. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
    21. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 173-190.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:71:y:2018:i:4:p:537-556. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0023-5962 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0023-5962 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.