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Dissent in monetary policy decisions

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  • Riboni, Alessandro
  • Ruge-Murcia, Francisco

Abstract

Voting records indicate that dissents in monetary policy committees are frequent and predictability regressions show that they help forecast future policy decisions. This paper develops a model of consensual collective decision-making and dissent, and estimates it using individual voting data from the Bank of England and the Riksbank. Regressions based on artificial data simulated from the model show that decision-making frictions help account for the predictive power of current dissents.

Suggested Citation

  • Riboni, Alessandro & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2014. "Dissent in monetary policy decisions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 137-154.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:66:y:2014:i:c:p:137-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.03.006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Greene, William H. & Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N. & Spencer, Christopher, 2013. "The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-04, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco & Riboni, Alessandro, 2017. "Collective versus individual Decision-Making: A case study of the Bank of Israel Law," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 73-89.
    3. Eichler, Stefan & Lähner, Tom & Noth, Felix, 2016. "Regional Banking Instability and FOMC Voting," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145803, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    5. Belderbos, Rene & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Fukao, Kyoji & Kim, Young Gak & Kwon, Hyeog Ug, 2013. "Plant Productivity Dynamics and Private and Public R&D Spillovers: Technological, Geographic and Relational Proximity," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-05, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. David-Jan Jansen & Richhild Moessner, 2016. "Communicating dissent on monetary policy: Evidence from central bank minutes," DNB Working Papers 512, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Horváth, Roman & Jonášová, Júlia, 2015. "Central banks' voting records, the financial crisis and future monetary policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 229-243.
    8. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have minutes helped to predict fed funds rate changes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-32.
    9. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?," Working Paper Series 1961, European Central Bank.
    10. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed’s dot projections," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145768, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram, 2015. "Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?," Working Paper Series 1808, European Central Bank.
    12. Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2012. "Is the U.S. Fed Voting Record Informative about Future Monetary Policy?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 478-484, December.
    13. Carlos Madeira & Joao Madeira, 2015. "Dissent in FOMC Meeting and the Announcement Drift," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 749, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 222-234.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Committees; Voting models; Supermajority; Political economy of central banking;

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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