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Spread the Word: International spillovers from central bank communication

Author

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  • Armelius, Hanna
  • Bertsch, Christoph
  • Hull, Isaiah
  • Zhang, Xin

Abstract

We construct a novel text dataset to measure the sentiment component of communications for 23 central banks over the 2002–2017 period. Our analysis yields three results. First, comovement in sentiment across central banks is not reducible to trade or financial flow exposures. Second, sentiment shocks generate cross-country spillovers in sentiment, policy rates, and macroeconomic variables; and the Fed appears to be a uniquely influential generator of such spillovers, even among prominent central banks. And third, geographic distance is a robust and economically significant determinant of comovement in central bank sentiment, while shared language and colonial ties have weaker predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Armelius, Hanna & Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Spread the Word: International spillovers from central bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:103:y:2020:i:c:s0261560619302967
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102116
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    3. R. Erasmus & H. Hollander, 2020. "A Forward Guidance Indicator For The South African Reserve Bank: Implementing A Text Analysis Algorithm," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 41-72, December.
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    6. Frederik Neugebauer, 2020. "ECB Announcements and Stock Market Volatility," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 20-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    7. Hansson, Magnus, 2021. "Evolution of topics in central bank speech communication," Working Papers in Economics 811, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
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    9. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Victor Maia, 2023. "The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 828-859, October.
    10. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna & Radu, Ştefan-Constantin, 2023. "Unveiling the sentiment behind central bank narratives: A novel deep learning index," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    11. Magnus Hansson, 2021. "Evolution of topics in central bank speech communication," Papers 2109.10058, arXiv.org.
    12. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo & Pereira, Flavio, 2022. "Does fiscal sentiment matter for sovereign risk?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 18-30.
    13. Koop, Christel & Scotto di Vettimo, Michele, 2023. "How do the media scrutinise central banking? Evidence from the Bank of England," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Vänni, Ilona, 2020. "Reading between the lines: Using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2020, Bank of Finland.
    15. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Monetary and Fiscal Spillovers Across the Atlantic: The Role of Financial Markets," DEM Working Papers 2021/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    17. Mario Gonzalez & Raul Cruz Tadle, 2021. "Monetary Policy Press Releases: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 912, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Soulemanou, Soulemanou, 2020. "Transparence des Banques Centrales et efficacité de la politique monétaire : quelles implications pour la Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale ? [Central Bank's Transparency and effectiveness of ," MPRA Paper 116436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Stijn Claessens & Ricardo Correa & Juan M. Londono, 2021. "Financial Stability Governance and Central Bank Communications," International Finance Discussion Papers 1328, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Yu, Zhen & Liu, Wei & Yang, Fuyu, 2023. "A central bankers’ sentiment index of global financial cycle," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    21. In Do Hwang & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does communication influence executives' opinion of central bank policy?," Working Papers 2020-17, Swiss National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Communication; Monetary policy; International policy transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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