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The effect of capital-flows composition on output volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Federico

    (BlackRock)

  • Carlos Vegh

    (World Bank)

  • Guillermo Vuletin

    (World Bank)

Abstract

By distinguishing between foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio and other investments (OTR), we study the effects of the composition of capital inflows on output volatility. We develop a simple empirical model which, under certain conditions satisfied in the data, yields three key testable implications. First, output volatility should depend positively on FDI and OTR volatility. Second, output volatility should be an increasing function of the correlation between FDI and OTR. Third, for low values of the FDI share, output volatility should be a decreasing function of the share of FDI in total capital inflows. We find strong support in the data for all three implications, even after controlling for other factors that may influence output volatility and dealing with potential endogeneity problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Federico & Carlos Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2018. "The effect of capital-flows composition on output volatility," Económica, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 64, pages 95-132, January-D.
    • Handle: RePEc:akh:journl:616
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    Cited by:

    1. Lan Khanh Chu & Huong Hoang Diep Truong & Hoang Phuong Dung, 2023. "Unveiling the influence of economic complexity and economic shocks on output growth volatility: evidence from a global sample," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(3), pages 637-676, December.
    2. Hansen, Erwin & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2022. "The reinvestment by multinationals as a capital flow: Crises, imbalances, and the cash-based current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Armelius, Hanna & Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Spread the Word: International spillovers from central bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Alimov, Behzod, 2022. "The dynamic effects of debt and equity inflows: Evidence from emerging and developing countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    5. Mark K. Armah, 2024. "The effect of central bank credibility on economic growth and output volatility in inflation targeting regime," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 26(2), pages 619-640, August.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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