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The effect of capital flows composition on output volatility

  • Federico, Pablo
  • Vegh, Carlos A.
  • Vuletin, Guillermo

A large literature has argued that different types of capital flows have different consequences for macroeconomic stability. By distinguishing between foreign direct investment and portfolio and other investments, this paper studies the effects of the composition of capital inflows on output volatility. The paper develops a simple empirical model which, under certain conditions that hold in the data, yields three key testable implications. First, output volatility should depend positively on the volatilities of both foreign direct investment and portfolio and other inflows. Second, output volatility should be an increasing function of the correlation between both kinds of inflows. Third, output volatility should be a decreasing function of the share of foreign direct investment in total capital inflows, for low values of that share. The data provide strong support for all three implications, even after controlling for other factors that may influence output volatility, and after dealing with potential endogeneity problems. These findings call attention to the importance of taking into account the synchronization and composition of capital flows for output stabilization purposes, as opposed to just focusing on the volatility of each component of capital flows.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6386.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6386
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  1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E & Volosovych, Vadym, 2010. "Deep Financial Integration and Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7784, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Laura Alfaro & Maggie Xiaoyang Chen, 2012. "Surviving the Global Financial Crisis: Foreign Ownership and Establishment Performance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 30-55, August.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 1999. "Do capital controls influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Paolo Mauro & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
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