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Deep Financial Integration and Volatility

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  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Sørensen, Bent E
  • Volosovych, Vadym

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between financial integration and output volatility at micro and macro levels. Using a very large firm-level dataset (AMADEUS) from 16 European countries, we construct a measure of ``deep'' financial integration at the regional level based on observations of foreign ownership at the firm level. We find a significant positive effect of foreign ownership on the volatility of firms' outcomes in static as well as dynamic empirical frameworks. This effect survives aggregation and carries over to regional output, leading to a positive association between deep international financial integration and aggregate fluctuations. To identify the causal effect of integration on volatility we exploit variation in the transposition dates of the European Union-wide legislative acts from the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP). We find that high trust regions located in countries who harmonized their capital markets sooner have higher levels of financial integration and higher volatility.

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  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E & Volosovych, Vadym, 2010. "Deep Financial Integration and Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7784, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7784
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    3. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
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    5. Pablo Federico, Carlos Vegh, Guillermo Vuletin, 2018. "The effect of capital-flows composition on output volatility," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 64, pages 95-132, January-D.
    6. David Thesmar & Mathias Thoenig, 2011. "Contrasting Trends in Firm Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 143-180, October.
    7. Abedifar, Pejman & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tarazi, Amine, 2016. "Finance-growth nexus and dual-banking systems: Relative importance of Islamic banks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 198-215.
    8. Norbert Czinkán, 2017. "The Role of Individual Firms in Aggregate Fluctuations: Evidence from Hungary," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(2), pages 40-63.
    9. Bas, Maria & Bombarda, Pamela & Jean, Sébastien & Orefice, Gianluca, 2021. "Firms’ exports, volatility and skills: Evidence from France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Bremus, Franziska & Ludolph, Melina, 2021. "The nexus between loan portfolio size and volatility: Does bank capital regulation matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Roger M. Gomis & Sameer Khatiwada, 2017. "Debt and productivity: Evidence from rm-level data," IHEID Working Papers 04-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. Kurz, Christopher & Senses, Mine Z., 2016. "Importing, exporting, and firm-level employment volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-175.
    13. Rajni Kant Rajhans & Anuradha Jain, 2015. "Volatility Spillover in Foreign Exchange Markets," Paradigm, , vol. 19(2), pages 137-151, December.
    14. Roni Bhowmik & Wang Shouyang & Abbas Ghulam, 2018. "Return and Volatility Spillovers Effects: Study of Asian Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 97-119, April.
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    17. Sanjay Sehgal & Mala Dutt, 2018. "Domestic and International Information Linkages for the US Dollar/Indian Rupee Contracts: An Empirical Study," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 43(4), pages 205-233, November.
    18. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    19. Daniela MAGGIONI & Alessia LO TURCO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2014. "Does export complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Working Papers 407, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    20. De Nicolò, Gianni & Juvenal, Luciana, 2014. "Financial integration, globalization, and real activity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 65-75.
    21. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.
    22. Erick Lusekelo Mwambuli & Zhang Xianzhi & Zakayo S. Kisava, 2016. "Volatility Spillover Effects Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Turkey," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 343-359, December.
    23. Franziska Bremus & Melina Ludolph, 2019. "The Nexus between Loan Portfolio Size and Volatility: Does Banking Regulation Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1822, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm volatility; foreign ownership; macro volatility; regional integration; social capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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