IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/15-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Pengfei Wang

    (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Yi Wen

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Zhiwei Xu

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

Abstract

Countries with more developed financial markets tend to have significantly lower aggregate volatility. This relationship is also highly non-linear---starting from a low level of financial development the reduction in aggregate volatility with respect to financial deepening is far more significant than it is when the financial market is more developed. We build a fully-fledged neoclassical growth model with an endogenous financial market of credit arrangements and private debt to rationalize these stylized facts. We show how financial development that promotes better credit allocations under more relaxed borrowing constraints can reduce the impact of non-financial shocks (such as TFP shocks, government spending shocks, preference shocks) on aggregate output and investment, and why this volatility-reducing effect diminishes with continuing financial liberalizations. Our simple model also sheds light on a number of other important issues, such as the "Great Moderation" and the simultaneously rising trends of dispersions in sales growth and stock returns for publicly traded firms. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2018. "Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 221-251, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:15-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2017.08.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2017.08.005
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See http://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2017.08.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Urban J. Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Financial innovations and macroeconomic volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    3. Comin, Diego & Mulani, Sunil, 2009. "A theory of growth and volatility at the aggregate and firm level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1023-1042, November.
    4. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2004. "Empirical Studies of Financial Innovation: Lots of Talk, Little Action?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 116-144, March.
    5. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.
    6. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.
    7. Kjetil Storesletten & Jose-Victor Rios Rull & Yan Bai, 2011. "Demand Shocks that Look Like Productivity Shocks," 2011 Meeting Papers 99, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Jeremy Greenwood & Juan M. Sanchez & Cheng Wang, 2010. "Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1875-1891, September.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    10. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    12. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    13. Adrian Peralta-Alva & Manuel S. Santos, 2010. "Problems in the Numerical Simulation of Models with Heterogeneous Agents and Economic Distortions," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 617-625, 04-05.
    14. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    15. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    16. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    17. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    18. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Hayashi Meets Kiyotaki and Moore: A Theory of Capital Adjustment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 207-225, April.
    19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    21. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1991. "Real business-cycle theory : Wisdom or whimsy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 607-626, October.
    22. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
    23. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    24. Patrick Pintus & Yi Wen, 2013. "Leveraged Borrowing and Boom-Bust Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 617-633, October.
    25. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-1164, December.
    26. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    27. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    28. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    29. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    30. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1432-1443, November.
    31. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    32. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    33. Duffy, John & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2000. "A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 87-120, March.
    34. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    35. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2013. "Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    36. Parker, Miles, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm–Level Volatility in the UK," Discussion Papers 16, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    37. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2001. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1286-1310, December.
    38. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer.
    39. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    40. Müller, Ulrich K., 2012. "Measuring prior sensitivity and prior informativeness in large Bayesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 581-597.
    41. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Financial innovation and the Great Moderation: what do household data say?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    42. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    43. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2010. "Financial Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time: The Updated Financial Development and Structure Database," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(1), pages 77-92, January.
    44. Zsolt Becsi & Ping Wang, 1997. "Financial development and growth," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 4), pages 46-62.
    45. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    46. Dellas, Harris & Hess, Martin, 2005. "Financial development and stock returns: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 891-912, October.
    47. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    48. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    49. Thomas Philippon & Fatih Guvenen, 2005. "Firm Volatility and Wage Inequality," 2005 Meeting Papers 230, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    50. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    51. Comin, D., 2000. "An Uncertainty-Driven Theory of the Productivity Slowdown: Manufacturing," Working Papers 00-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    52. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter‐Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, June.
    53. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2004. "The Solow model with CES technology: nonlinearities and parameter heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 171-201.
    54. Manganelli, Simone & Popov, Alexander, 2015. "Financial development, sectoral reallocation, and volatility: International evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 323-337.
    55. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 184-221, July.
    56. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    57. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 2006. "Equilibrium in a durable goods market with lumpy adjustment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 187-213, May.
    58. Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2008. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-292.
    59. Wang, Peng-fei & Wen, Yi, 2011. "Volatility, growth, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1696-1709, October.
    60. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Greenwood & Juan M. Sanchez & Cheng Wang, 2010. "Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1875-1891, September.
    2. Shuonan Zhang, 2020. "State-owned enterprises and entrusted lending: A DSGE analysis for growth and business cycles in China," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2020-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    3. Yi Wen, 2014. "QE: when and how should the Fed exit?," Working Papers 2014-16, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Yi Wen, 2013. "Evaluating unconventional monetary policies -why aren’t they more effective?," Working Papers 2013-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 184-221, July.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Ho, Shan-Ju, 2020. "Financial inclusion, financial innovation, and firms’ sales growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 189-205.
    7. Uddin, Moshfique & Chowdhury, Anup & Anderson, Keith & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2021. "The effect of COVID – 19 pandemic on global stock market volatility: Can economic strength help to manage the uncertainty?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-44.
    8. Yi Wen, 2014. "When and how to exit quantitative easing?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(3), pages 243-265.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shalini Mitra, 2012. "Does Financial Development Cause Higher Firm Volatility and Lower Aggregate Volatility?," Working papers 2012-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    2. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2009. "Financial development and economic volatility: a unified explanation," Working Papers 2009-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, december.
    4. Che, Natasha Xingyuan, 2009. "The great dissolution: organization capital and diverging volatility puzzle," MPRA Paper 13701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    6. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    7. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.
    8. Anna Batyra, 2007. "Are turbulences of Sargent and Ljungqvist consistent with lower aggregate volatility?," 2007 Meeting Papers 413, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    10. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-641, June.
    11. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Does financial development volatility affect industrial growth volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 307-320.
    12. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2009. "Measuring Changes in Firm-Level Volatility: An Application to Japan," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/20, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Battiati, Claudio, 2019. "R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 299-324.
    14. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    15. Patrick Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2019. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 123-146, January.
    16. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Jing Zhou, . "Asset Bubbles and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Lathaporn Ratanavararak, 2018. "The Impact of Imperfect Financial Integration and Trade on Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 79, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jan 2018.
    18. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in micro volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    19. Yépez, Carlos A., 2018. "Financial intermediation and real estate prices impact on business cycles: A Bayesian analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 138-160.
    20. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 52-67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Development; Firm Dynamics; Private Debts; Volatility Trends; Great Moderation; Lumpy Investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:15-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.