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Financial development and long-run volatility trends

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  • Pengfei Wang
  • Yi Wen
  • Zhiwei Xu

Abstract

Countries with more developed financial markets tend to have significantly lower aggregate volatility. This relationship is also highly non-linear starting from a low level of financial development the reduction in aggregate volatility is far more significant with respect to financial deepening than when the financial market is more developed. We build a fully-edged heterogeneous-agent model with an endogenous financial market of private credit and debt to rationalize these stylized facts. We show how financial development that promotes better credit allocations under more relaxed borrowing constraints can reduce the impact of non-financial shocks (such as TFP shocks, government spending shocks, preference shocks) on aggregate output and investment, and why this volatility-reducing effect diminishes with continuing financial liberalizations. Our simple model also sheds light on a number of other important issues, such as the \"Great Moderation\" and the simultaneously rising trends of dispersions in sales growth and stock returns for publicly traded firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2013. "Financial development and long-run volatility trends," Working Papers 2013-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-003
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2013.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Greenwood & Juan M. Sanchez & Cheng Wang, 2010. "Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1875-1891, September.
    2. Shuonan Zhang, 2020. "State-owned enterprises and entrusted lending: A DSGE analysis for growth and business cycles in China," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2020-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    3. Victoria I. Okafor & Isaiah O. Olurinola & Ebenezer Bowale & Romanus Osabohien, 2023. "Financial development and income inequality in Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
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    5. Tony Cavoli & Sasidaran Gopalan & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2020. "Does Financial Inclusion Amplify Output Volatility in Emerging and Developing Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 901-930, September.
    6. Hejie Zhang & Huiming Lv & Shenghau Lin, 2021. "Financial Development, Saving Rates, and International Economic Volatility: A Simple Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Yuan, Shenguo & Wu, Zhouheng & Liu, Lanfeng, 2022. "The effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on Chinese macroeconomic volatilities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Yi Wen, 2013. "Evaluating unconventional monetary policies -why aren’t they more effective?," Working Papers 2013-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 184-221, July.
    10. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Ho, Shan-Ju, 2020. "Financial inclusion, financial innovation, and firms’ sales growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 189-205.
    11. Ameen Omar Shareef & K.P. Prabheesh, 2022. "Does International Monetary Policy Influence The Bank Risk? Evidence From India," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(2), pages 135-154, August.
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    13. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2021. "Easing economic vulnerability: Multidimensional evidence of financial development," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 237-252.
    14. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Eugenia Grecu, 2023. "Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    15. Uddin, Moshfique & Chowdhury, Anup & Anderson, Keith & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2021. "The effect of COVID – 19 pandemic on global stock market volatility: Can economic strength help to manage the uncertainty?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-44.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Development; Firm Dynamics; private debts; Volatility Trends; Great Moderation; Lumpy Investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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