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The nature of financial and real business cycles: The great moderation and banking sector pro cyclicality

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  • Balázs Égert
  • Douglas Sutherland

Abstract

This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It first analyses the main characteristics of the cycle, including the length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of these parameters during expansions and contractions. It then studies the degree of economic and financial cycle synchronisation between OECD countries but also of economic and financial variables within a given country, and gauges the extent to which cycle synchronisation changed over time. Finally, the paper provides some new evidence on the drivers of the great moderation and analyses the banking sector's pro-cyclicality by using aggregate and bank-level data. The main findings show that the amplitude of the real business cycle was becoming smaller during the great moderation, but asset price cycles were becoming more volatile. In part this was linked to developments in the banking sector which tended to accentuate pro-cyclical behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "The nature of financial and real business cycles: The great moderation and banking sector pro cyclicality," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brigitte Granville & Sana Hussain, 2017. "Eurozone cycles: An analysis of phase synchronization," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 83-114, April.
    2. Mikhail Stolbov, 2014. "International Credit Cycles: A Regional Perspective," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 21-47.
    3. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
    4. Nicola CUCARI, 2016. "Donatello Strangio & Giuseppe Sancetta (Eds.), Italy in a European Context: Research in Business, Economics, and the Environment," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 347-352, June.
    5. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2013. "Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1091, OECD Publishing.
    6. repec:eee:finlet:v:21:y:2017:i:c:p:115-125 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real business cycles; financial cycles; great moderation; banking system; financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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