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Banks' Credit Losses and Provisioning over the Business Cycle: Implications for IFRS 9

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  • Simona Malovana
  • Zaneta Tesarova

Abstract

We examine the procyclicality of banks' credit losses and provisions in the Czech Republic using pre-2018 data and then discuss the implications of the findings for provisioning in stage 3 under IFRS 9. This is possible because the majority of banks seem to have aligned their accounting definitions of default with the regulatory definition prior to the implementation of IFRS 9. We find significant asymmetries in banks' behavior over the cycle. Firstly, provisioning procyclicality is strongest in the later contractionary phase and early recovery phase, while it is non-existent in the early contractionary phase. Secondly, banks with higher credit risk behave more procyclically than their peers. If this behavior persists under IFRS 9, it may lead to delayed transfer of exposures between stages and exaggerate cyclical fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Simona Malovana & Zaneta Tesarova, 2019. "Banks' Credit Losses and Provisioning over the Business Cycle: Implications for IFRS 9," Working Papers 2019/4, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2019/4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit losses; IFRS 9; procyclicality; provisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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