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Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts

Author

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  • Avouyi-Dovi, S.
  • Matheron, J.

Abstract

In this paper, we study the co-movements between stock market indices and real economic activity over the business cycle in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States. Working on the premise that there is neither a single definition of the business cycle, nor a single method for studying it, we use two complementary approaches in our analysis. First, we identify the turning points in real economic indicators and stock market indices and determine the extent to which these series co-move, i.e. are regularly and significantly in the same phase of the cycle. Second, we decompose the series studied into a cyclical part and a structural part in order to calculate the correlations between the cyclical components of real economic indicators and excess returns, on the one hand, and the correlations between the structural components of these indicators, on the other. We then analyse the co-movements between three-month interest rates and the cyclical and structural components of real economic and stock market indices. Two main conclusions can be drawn from these different analyses: (i) there does not appear to be a strong dependence between stock prices and the level of real activity in the short term, except in the United States; (ii) in the longer term, real activity and stock prices seem to share the same determinants. However, it seems difficult to clearly identify an impact of asset price movements on the conduct of monetary policy, represented here by three-month money market interest rates. In general, we do not detect a significant relationship between the cyclical components of excess returns and those of money market rates; nor do we find a significant link between the structural components of these variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2003. "Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 3, pages 80-99, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:fisrev:2003:3:3
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    Cited by:

    1. Stéphane Hamayon, & Florence Legros & Yannick Pradat, 2021. "Quel rendement attendre de l’épargne retraite pour pallier la baisse projetée des taux de remplacement en répartition ?," Working Papers hal-03429170, HAL.
    2. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Gammadigbe, Vigninou, 2022. "Financial Cycles Synchronization in WAEMU Countries: Implications for Macroprudential Policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    4. Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Celina Gaitán Maldonado & Johanna López Velandia, 2014. "Las entidades financieras a lo largo del ciclo de negocios: ¿está el ciclo financiero sincronizado con el ciclo de negocios?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 28-40, December.
    5. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    6. Kee Tuan Teng & Siew Hwa Yen & Soo Y. Chua, 2013. "The Synchronisation of ASEAN-5 Stock Markets with the Growth Rate Cycles of Selected Emerging and Developed Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, February.
    7. Jorge Mario Uribe & Inés María Ulloa & Johanna Perea, 2015. "Reference financial cycle in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 83, pages 33-62, Julio - D.
    8. Teng Kee Tuan & Yen Siew Hwa & Chua Soo Yean, 2013. "Synchronisation of Stock Market Cycles: The Importance of Emerging and Developed Markets to ASEAN-5," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(4), pages 435-458.
    9. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L volution des Crédits l habitat en France : une grille d analyse en termes de cycles," Working papers 172, Banque de France.
    10. João Cruz & João Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 333-352, September.
    11. Hsu, Sara, 2012. "The US financial system, the great recession, and the “speculative spread”," MPRA Paper 38478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Alexander Erler & Christian Drescher & Damir Križanac, 2013. "The Fed’s TRAP," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 136-149, January.
    13. Ioan Roxana, 2015. "The Co-Movement Connection Between The Gdp And The Main Stock Market Index. The Cases Of Usa And Romania," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 186-192, December.
    14. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yan, Jing & Wei, Xiaohui, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness among monetary policy cycle, financial cycle and business cycle in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 640-652.
    15. Wh Boshoff, 2005. "The Properties Of Cycles In South African Financial Variables And Their Relation To The Business Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 694-709, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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