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Cycles réel et du crédit : convergence ou divergence ?. Une comparaison Pologne, Hongrie, République tchèque et zone euro

  • Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi
  • Rafał Kierzenkowski
  • Catherine Lubochinsky

This paper provides an analysis of co-movements between real and financial variables in three new eu member countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and the euro area. It focuses on the co-movement between real credit granted to firms and real industrial output on the one hand, and between the aforementioned variables and a monetary policy indicator (the three-month real interest rate) on the other. Given that there is no single definition for the business cycle, we take three different approaches: we identify the turning points in the series and then estimate a concordance index; we decompose and compare the cyclical components of the series; and we calculate dynamic correlations across the variables. We find a better convergence of real than financial cycles between the new eu members and the euro area. There is no a high degree of dependence between loans and industrial output in all countries; yet, monetary policy appears to smooth the distribution of credit throughout the cycles. Classification JEL : E23, E32, E44, E51, P00

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 57 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 851-879

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_574_0851
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