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Cycles réel et du crédit : convergence ou divergence ?. Une comparaison Pologne, Hongrie, République tchèque et zone euro

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  • Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi
  • Rafa? Kierzenkowski
  • Catherine Lubochinsky

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of co-movements between real and financial variables in three new eu member countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and the euro area. It focuses on the co-movement between real credit granted to firms and real industrial output on the one hand, and between the aforementioned variables and a monetary policy indicator (the three-month real interest rate) on the other. Given that there is no single definition for the business cycle, we take three different approaches: we identify the turning points in the series and then estimate a concordance index; we decompose and compare the cyclical components of the series; and we calculate dynamic correlations across the variables. We find a better convergence of real than financial cycles between the new eu members and the euro area. There is no a high degree of dependence between loans and industrial output in all countries; yet, monetary policy appears to smooth the distribution of credit throughout the cycles. Classification JEL?: E23, E32, E44, E51, P00

Suggested Citation

  • Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Rafa? Kierzenkowski & Catherine Lubochinsky, 2006. "Cycles réel et du crédit : convergence ou divergence ?. Une comparaison Pologne, Hongrie, République tchèque et zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 851-879.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_574_0851
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • P00 - Economic Systems - - General - - - General

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