IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2015_19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Lubos Hanus

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou Vezi 4, 182 00, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Lukas Vacha

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou Vezi 4, 182 00, Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

In this paper, we map the process of synchronization of the Visegrad Four within the framework of the European Union using wavelet techniques. We show that the relationship of among countries is dynamic and that it varies over time and across frequencies. We study the synchronization applying the wavelet cohesion measure with time-varying weights. This novel approach allows us to study the dynamic relationship among countries from a different perspective than the usual time-domain models. Analyzing monthly data from 1990 to 2014, the results for the Visegrad region show an increasing co-movement with the European Union after the countries began preparing for accession to the European Union. Participation in a currency union possibly increases the co-movement. Furthermore, we find a high degree of synchronization in long-term horizons by analyzing the Visegrad Four and Southern European countries' synchronization with the core countries of the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Working Papers IES 2015/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2015_19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/sci/publication/show/id/5328/lang/cs
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Vacha, Lukas & Barunik, Jozef, 2012. "Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 241-247.
    3. Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Measuring business cycles: A wavelet analysis of economic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 208-212, August.
    4. António Rua & Artur Silva Lopes, 2015. "Cohesion within the euro area and the US: A wavelet-based view," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(2), pages 63-76.
    5. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Working Papers 261, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    9. Rua, António, 2010. "Measuring comovement in the time-frequency space," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 685-691, June.
    10. Ana Lamo & Javier J. P鲥z & Ludger Schuknecht, 2013. "The cyclicality of consumption, wages and employment of the public sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1551-1569, April.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    12. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: A Primer," NIPE Working Papers 23/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    14. Joanna Bruzda, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization according to wavelets – the case of Poland and the euro zone member countries," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(3), pages 5-32.
    15. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.
    16. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlaváèek & Tomáš Holub, 2008. "Inflation Target Fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007: Some Stylized Facts," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 406-424, December.
    17. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    18. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    19. Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
    20. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    21. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balázs Égert, 2013. "Business Cycle Synchronization between Euro Area and C entral and E astern E uropean C ountries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 379-395, May.
    22. Kolasa, Marcin, 2013. "Business cycles in EU new member states: How and why are they different?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 487-496.
    23. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
    24. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
    25. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Han-Liang Cheng & Nan-Kuang Chen, 2021. "A study of financial cycles and the macroeconomy in Taiwan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1749-1778, October.
    2. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2019. "Trade, Industrial Dissimilarity, FDI and Business Cycle Co-movements: EC3SLS Evidence from Eurozone Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 327-359, August.
    3. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2020. "Influence of Accession of the Visegrad Group Countries to the EU on the Situation in Their Labour Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Jose Arreola‐Hernandez & Md Lutfur Rahman & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Yahya, 2021. "Asymmetric interdependence between currency markets' volatilities across frequencies and time scales," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2436-2457, April.
    5. Vácha, Lukáš & Šmolík, Filip & Baxa, Jaromír, 2019. "Comovement and disintegration of EU sovereign bond markets during the crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 541-556.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization within the European Union: A wavelet cohesion approach," Papers 1506.03106, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    2. Luboš Hanus & Lukáš Vácha, 2020. "Growth cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1779-1795, April.
    3. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    4. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    5. Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Business cycle synchronisation in the European Union: The effect of the common currency," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-14.
    6. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-27.
    7. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Brinca, Pedro & Gudjonsson, Haukur & Soares, Joana, 2015. "Optimal currency area and business cycle synchronization across U.S. states," MPRA Paper 62125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
    9. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    11. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    12. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    13. Bekiros Stelios & Nguyen Duc Khuong & Uddin Gazi Salah & Sjö Bo, 2015. "Business cycle (de)synchronization in the aftermath of the global financial crisis: implications for the Euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 609-624, December.
    14. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-varying Business Cycles Synchronisation in Europe," MPRA Paper 52925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, April.
    16. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.
    17. Rua, Antonio & Nunes, Luis C., 2005. "Coincident and leading indicators for the euro area: A frequency band approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 503-523.
    18. Svatopluk Kapounek & Jitka Poměnková, 2012. "Spurious synchronization of business cycles - Dynamic correlation analysis of V4 countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 181-188.
    19. Caraiani, Petre, 2015. "Estimating DSGE models across time and frequency," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 33-49.
    20. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2023. "Synchronization patterns in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2038-2059, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle synchronization; time-frequency; wavelets; co-movement; Visegrad Four; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2015_19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.