L’évolution des crédits à l’habitat en France : une grille d’analyse en termes de cycles
This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results obtained suggest that the current cycle is actually exceptional in many respects. One the one hand, it is the longest housing loans cycle observed over the last thirty years, while its occurrence appears to be structurally decoupled with several indicators of the real economy. On the other hand, this cycle may also be related to the existence of an excess supply regime, which could prove an important explanatory factor of a decoupling with the real economy.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- DellAriccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2005.
"Lending Booms and Lending Standards,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004.
"Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries,"
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2004. "Characterizing the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4457, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Working Papers 261, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Hurlin, Christophe & Kierzenkowski, Rafal, 2007.
"Credit market disequilibrium in Poland: Can we find what we expect?: Non-stationarity and the short-side rule,"
Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 157-183, June.
- Christophe Hurlin & R. Kierzenkowski, 2007. "Credit Market Disequilibrium in Poland: Can we find what we expect? Non stationarity and the Short Side Rule," Post-Print halshs-00257320, HAL.
- Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
- Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-30, November.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2002.
"Identifying business cycle turning points in real time,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper No.
2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61.
- Atanasova Christina, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, December.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992.
"An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator,"
Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- G. B. Gorton & Ping He, 2008.
"Bank Credit Cycles,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1181-1214.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2006.
"Immobilier et politique monétaire,"
Revue de l'OFCE,
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 96(1), pages 115-151.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
- Mark W. French, 2001. "Estimating changes in trend growth of total factor productivity: Kalman and H-P filters versus a Markov-switching framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
- Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004.
"The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey,"
SIFR Research Report Series
27, Institute for Financial Research.
- Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
- Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2005.
"Interactions between Business Cycles, stock Market Cycles and Interest Rates: the Stylised Facts,"
121, Banque de France.
- Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2003. "Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 3, pages 80-99, November.
- Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
- Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.