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Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept

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  • Knüppel, Malte

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the implications of the two concepts of asymmetry defined by Sichel (1993) - deepness and steepness - for first-order autoregressive processes with a Markov-switching intercept. In order to do so, we derive the two required formulas determining the coefficient of skewness of first-order autoregressive processes with a Markov-switching intercept and the coefficient of skewness of the first differences of these processes. For the special case of two states, we present the parameter restrictions leading to non-deepness and non-steepness. We show that these restrictions imply that the conclusions of Clements & Krolzig (2003) with respect to asymmetries of processes with a Markov-switching intercept are not correct. Finally, we apply the results to U.S. GDP which is found to exhibit strongly significant deepness and steepness.

Suggested Citation

  • Knüppel, Malte, 2004. "Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,41, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2919
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    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    4. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
    5. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 47-75.
    6. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
    9. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003. "On detrending and cyclical asymmetry," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 271-289.
    10. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, June.
    11. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Pedro Cameira de & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2011. "A assimetria dos ciclos económicos: Evidência internacional usando o teste triples [The asymmetry of business cycles: International evidence using triples test]," MPRA Paper 35208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Popp, Stephan, 2009. "Investigating business cycle asymmetry for the G7 countries: Evidence from over a century of data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 583-591, October.
    4. Alexandra Krystalogianni & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2005. "Regime switching in yield structures and real estate investment," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 279-299, May.
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Eleftheriou, Sofia, 2016. "Gold returns: Do business cycle asymmetries matter? Evidence from an international country sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-170.
    6. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2023. "Trend and cycle decomposition of Markov switching (co)integrated time series," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(5), pages 1381-1406, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetry; deepness; steepness; Markov-switching; business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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