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The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models

  • Frédérick Demers
  • Ryan Macdonald

This paper examines the ability of linear and nonlinear models to replicate features of real Canadian GDP. We evaluate the models using various business-cycle metrics. From the 9 data generating processes designed, none can completely accommodate every business-cycle metric under consideration. Richness and complexity do not guarantee a close match with Canadian data. Our findings for Canada are consistent with Piger and Morley's (2005) study of the United States data and confirms the contradiction of their results with those reported by Engel, Haugh, and Pagan (2005): nonlinear models do provide an improvement in matching business-cycle features. Lastly, the empirical results suggest that investigating the merits of forecast combination would be worthwhile.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp07-38.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 07-38.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-38
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  1. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2000. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W32, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
  3. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  6. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  7. Sichel, D.E., 1988. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Papers 85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  8. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
  9. Knüppel, Malte, 2004. "Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group.
  11. A. Pagan & J. Engel & D. Haugh, 2004. "Some Methods for Assessing the Need for Non-linear Models in Business Cycle Analysis and Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 284, Econometric Society.
  12. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Bodman, P.M. & Crosby, M., 1998. "Phases of the Canadian Business Cycle," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 640, The University of Melbourne.
  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  15. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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