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Business cycle asymmetries and the nominal exchange rate regimes

This paper investigates differences in time series behaviour of real output and the price levels in seven countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) under alternative exchange rate systems. Quarterly data spanning the Bretton-Woods and the subsequent floating exchange rate regimes are used to test whether or not the cyclical fluctuations of output and price levels are symmetric. It is shown that the evidence of asymmetries depends on the prevailing nominal exchange rate regime and the method used to de-trend the data.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/1998/g98-4.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number G98/4.

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Length: 19p
Date of creation: May 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1998/04
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  1. Ramsey, James B & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 1-21, February.
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  3. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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  11. Razzak, W., 1997. "The Hodrick-Prescott technique: A smoother versus a filter: An application to New Zealand GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 163-168, December.
  12. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec..
  13. Falk, Barry L., 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Staff General Research Papers 11097, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  14. Johansen, S., 1991. "A Statistical Analsysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Papers 77, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  15. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  16. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  17. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
  18. Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October.
  19. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
  20. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1997. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, March.
  21. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Burgess, Simon M, 1992. "Asymmetric Employment Cycles in Britain: Evidence and an Explanation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 279-90, March.
  23. Klein, Benjamin, 1976. "The social costs of the recent inflation: The mirage of steady "anticipated" inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 185-212, January.
  24. Kim Jeong-Ryeol & Mittnik Stefan & Rachev Svetlozar T., 1996. "Detecting Asymmetries in Observed Linear Time Series and Unobserved Disturbances," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-15, October.
  25. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  26. Granger, Clive W J, 1997. "On Modelling the Long Run in Applied Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 169-77, January.
  27. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
  28. Randal Verbrugge Randal Verbrugge, 1997. "Investigating Cyclical Asymmetries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, April.
  29. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  30. Neftci, Salih N. & McNevin, Bruce, 1986. "Some Evidence on the Non-Linearity of Economic Time Series: 1890-1981," Working Papers 86-26, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  31. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  32. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
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