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Business cycle asymmetries and the nominal exchange rate regimes

This paper investigates differences in time series behaviour of real output and the price levels in seven countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) under alternative exchange rate systems. Quarterly data spanning the Bretton-Woods and the subsequent floating exchange rate regimes are used to test whether or not the cyclical fluctuations of output and price levels are symmetric. It is shown that the evidence of asymmetries depends on the prevailing nominal exchange rate regime and the method used to de-trend the data.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number G98/4.

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Length: 19p
Date of creation: May 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1998/04
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  1. C. John McDermott & David T. Coe, 1996. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Working Papers 96/69, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ball, L. & Mankiw, N.G., 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1602, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1990. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 950, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  6. Burgess, Simon M, 1992. "Asymmetric Employment Cycles in Britain: Evidence and an Explanation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 279-90, March.
  7. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Sichel, D.E., 1988. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Papers 85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  9. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Razzak, W., 1997. "The Hodrick-Prescott technique: A smoother versus a filter: An application to New Zealand GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 163-168, December.
  11. Ramsey, J.B. & Rothman, P., 1993. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Working Papers 93-39, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. Falk, Barry L., 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Staff General Research Papers 11097, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October.
  15. Scott, A. & Acemoglu, D., 1995. "Asymmetric Business Cycles: Theory and Time-series Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 99173, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  16. Westlund, Anders H & Ohlen, Sven, 1991. "On Testing for Symmetry in Business Cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 479-502.
  17. Granger, Clive W J, 1997. "On Modelling the Long Run in Applied Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 169-77, January.
  18. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  19. Johansen, S., 1991. "A Statistical Analsysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Papers 77, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  20. Neftci, Salih N. & McNevin, Bruce, 1986. "Some Evidence on the Non-Linearity of Economic Time Series: 1890-1981," Working Papers 86-26, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  21. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:104:y:1989:i:4:p:635-54 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Randal Verbrugge Randal Verbrugge, 1997. "Investigating Cyclical Asymmetries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, April.
  23. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  24. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  25. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  26. Kim Jeong-Ryeol & Mittnik Stefan & Rachev Svetlozar T., 1996. "Detecting Asymmetries in Observed Linear Time Series and Unobserved Disturbances," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-15, October.
  27. Klein, Benjamin, 1976. "The social costs of the recent inflation: The mirage of steady "anticipated" inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 185-212, January.
  28. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  30. Hussey, Robert, 1992. "Nonparametric evidence on asymmetry in business cycles using aggregate employment time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 217-231.
  31. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  32. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  33. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
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