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A cross-country investigation of macroeconomic asymmetries

  • Randal J. Verbrugge


Using a recently introduced nonparametric test, I investigate two important and distinct asymmetries in cross-country quarterly macroeconomic time series. Asymmetries are suggested by many theories (old and new), and those discovered aid in the selection of the appropriate nonlinear time series representation (useful, for example, in both forecasting and policy guidance). Further, asymmetries can help determine underlying economic mechanisms. The key findings: positive growth rate asymmetry is nearly ubiquitous in price level data (but is not caused by money growth asymmetry); and the pattern of asymmetries varies dramatically across countries (making widespread reliance on US data to study fluctuations worrisome).

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9809017.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 30 Sep 1998
Date of revision: 30 Sep 1998
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9809017
Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on IBM PC; pages: 20; figures: included
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  27. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Ramsey, J.B. & Rothman, P., 1993. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Working Papers 93-39, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  29. Kim Jeong-Ryeol & Mittnik Stefan & Rachev Svetlozar T., 1996. "Detecting Asymmetries in Observed Linear Time Series and Unobserved Disturbances," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-15, October.
  30. Westlund, Anders H & Ohlen, Sven, 1991. "On Testing for Symmetry in Business Cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 479-502.
  31. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
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