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The Impact Of Asset Prices And Their Information Value For Monetary Policy





In this paper we explore the contribution that assetprices appear to make to fluctuations in the economyand to inflation, and hence to monetary policy,using a large international panel for the 1970-2008period. We show that house prices are importantin the determination of economic activity, andtherefore to monetary policy, but that stock marketprices, while offering information in many periods,form a rather weaker and less well determined linkage.Moreover, the effects are asymmetric over thecourse of the economic cycle. Using an augmentedTaylor rule, we go on to show that monetary policyhas not reacted much to asset prices but that longruninterest rates are clearly affected by house priceinflation. Relationships tend to be weaker in recentyears, probably as a result of greater stability in outputgrowth and inflation. Nevertheless, our resultssuggest that central banks would do well to considerasset prices in deciding monetary policy.

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Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
Issue (Month): 61 (August)
Pages: 134-167

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:008322
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  1. Muellbauer, John, 1992. "Anglo-German differences in housing market dynamics : The role of institutions and macro economic policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 539-548, April.
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  4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  5. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt28d3s92s, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
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  7. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1999. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 317-34, August.
  8. Morduch, J., 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Papers 512, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
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  10. Goodhart, Charles, 2001. "What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(472), pages F335-56, June.
  11. Mayes, David & Viren , Matti, 2007. "THE SGP and the ECB an exercise in asymmetry," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 159-175.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Slacalek, Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Working Paper Series 1117, European Central Bank.
  14. C. Goodhart, 2001. "What Weight Should be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurementof Inflation?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 65, Netherlands Central Bank.
  15. Huang, Angela & Margaritis, Dimitri & Mayes, David, 2001. "Monetary policy rules in practice: Evidence from New Zealand," Research Discussion Papers 18/2001, Bank of Finland.
  16. Chetty, V. K. & Heckman, J. J., 1986. "A dynamic model of aggregate output supply, factor demand and entry and exit for a competitive industry with heterogeneous plants," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 237-262.
  17. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2000. "The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 199-231, June.
  18. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
  19. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
  20. King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April.
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