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THE SGP and the ECB an exercise in asymmetry

Author

Listed:
  • Mayes, David

    () (University of Auckland)

  • Viren , Matti

    () (University of tUrku and Bank of Finland)

Abstract

Using panel data for the Euro Area countries in the period since 1972 this paper explores, in the context of a small model of the E.U. economy, the degree to which macroeconomic policy has been asymmetric. It shows in particular that monetary policy has been much more responsive to threats that inflation would lie outside the price stability target than to equal sized shocks within the target zone. Similarly monetary policy has responded to threats of large positive and negative output gaps but has remained largely unresponsive to smaller divergences. It thus appears that the ECB and its predecessors have been avoiding ‘fine-tuning’ but have been aggressive in responding to substantial threats to macroeconomic stability. In the light of this finding one can reflect on the asymmetries in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) that imposes penalties on excessive budgetary deficits. This paper examines the sense of the SGP, as revised in March 2005, in light of these findings, and the role the ECB plays vis-à-vis these policies. In particular it considers the new provisions for behavior in 'good times' and improved governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayes, David & Viren , Matti, 2007. "THE SGP and the ECB an exercise in asymmetry," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 159-175.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:0855
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2010. "The Impact Of Asset Prices And Their Information Value For Monetary Policy," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 28(61), pages 134-167, August.
    2. Staehr, Karsten, 2008. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 46-69, March.
    3. David G. Mayes, 2013. "The euro crisis," Chapters,in: Globalisation, the Global Financial Crisis and the State, chapter 11, pages 243-271 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset prices; Monetary policy; European Union;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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