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Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations : Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components

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  • Kim, C-J
  • Nelson, C-R

Abstract

More than thirty years ago Milton Friedman proposed a 'plucking' model of business fluctuations in which output cannot exceed a ceiling level, but will, from time to time, be plucked downward by recession. The model implied that business fluctuations are asymmetric, that recessions have only a temporary effect on output, and that recessions are duration dependent while expansions are not. Subsequent literature has provided copious empirical support for these propositions, but econometric models of business fluctuations have not incorporated these features. This paper presents a formal econometric model which encompasses both plucking and asymmetric fluctuations around a stochatic trend while allowing for heteroskedasticity and shocks to the growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, C-J & Nelson, C-R, 1997. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations : Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 97-06, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:washer:97-06
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECONOMIC MODELS ; ECONOMETRICS ; BUSINESS CYCLES ; ECONOMIC GROWTH;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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