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Inventories and Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations in the UK


  • Sensier, M.


This paper shows that the behaviour of inventories is not symmetrical and that their modelling requires more than just a linear regression. Models of inventory behaviour are described and symmetric and non-symmetric-error-correction models are formulated which divide the changes in production into positive and negative components. Deepness and steepness tests are calculated for inventories of the disaggregate manufacturing sectors in the UK for evidence of the asymmetry. The resultsof the symmetric and the asymmetric error-correction models are presented and compared by a series of tests. Step response functions of the non-symmetric error-correction models are reported to show the full extent of this asymmetry.

Suggested Citation

  • Sensier, M., 1997. "Inventories and Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations in the UK," Economics Series Working Papers 99192, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:99192

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kiander, Jaakko, 1993. "Endogenous unemployment insurance in a monopoly union model when job search matters," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 101-115, August.
    2. Ram, Rati, 1987. "Wagner's Hypothesis in Time-Series and Cross-section Perspectives:," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 194-204, May.
    3. Boadway, Robin W. & Oswald, Andrew J., 1983. "Unemployment insurance and redistributive taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 193-210, March.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    6. Baily, Martin Neil, 1978. "Some aspects of optimal unemployment insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 379-402, December.
    7. repec:cup:apsrev:v:72:y:1978:i:04:p:1243-1261_15 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2001. "Group Loyalty and the Taste for Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 500-528, June.
    9. Wright, Randall, 1986. "The redistributive roles of unemployment insurance and the dynamics of voting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 377-399, December.
    10. Feldstein, Martin S, 1978. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Temporary Layoff Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 834-846, December.
    11. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    12. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "A cross-country investigation of macroeconomic asymmetries," Macroeconomics 9809017, EconWPA, revised 30 Sep 1998.
    2. David Bivin, 2005. "Gauging the performance of the linear-quadratic inventory model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1215-1231.

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    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling


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