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Phases of the Canadian business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Philip M. Bodman
  • Mark Crosby

Abstract

In this paper we contrast a number of univariate models of Canadian GDP. Our preferred models are used to provide a business cycle chronology for Canada, which is compared with some existing, more judgmentally determined chronologies. We find that a simple, "two quarters of negative growth" rule for determining recession dates is the most similar to our chronology. We also find that the most recent recession in Canada was unique in both its length and the slow speed of recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip M. Bodman & Mark Crosby, 2000. "Phases of the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 618-633, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:33:y:2000:i:3:p:618-633
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    Cited by:

    1. Marina Capparucci & Emanuela Ghignoni & Alina Verashchagina & Natalia Vorozhbit, 2015. "The Drivers of Innovation in the Italian Manufacturing Sector," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 3, pages 111-128.
    2. Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2003. "Effects of Business Cycles on the Labour Market Assimilation of Immigrants," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2003203e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    3. Altug, Sumru G. & Bildirici, Melike, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
    5. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
    6. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Abdurrahman Aydemir, 2003. "Effects of Business Cycles on Labour Market Assimilation of Immigrants," Labor and Demography 0309009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Phil Bodman, "undated". "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "An information diffusion-based model of oil futures price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 518-525.
    10. Rodríguez, Rosa & Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio, 2006. "On the economic link between asset prices and real activity," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063209, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    11. Abdurrahman Aydemir, 2003. "Effects of Business Cycles on Labour Market Assimilation of Immigrants," Labor and Demography 0309010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2003. "Les effets des cycles economiques sur l'assimilation des immigrants sur le marche du travail," Direction des etudes analytiques : documents de recherche 2003203f, Statistics Canada, Direction des etudes analytiques.
    13. Talan İşcan, 2015. "Windfall Resource Income, Productivity Growth, and Manufacturing Employment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 279-311, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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